The Toronto Maple Leafs and Buffalo Sabres kick off their home-and-home south of the border on Friday Night at KeyBank Center.
The pregame narrative: Toronto hasn’t had a great start by any means, but the team is favoured on the road against a perennially bad Buffalo team. Both teams have given up plenty of chances so far, making the over on Matthew Knies and Tage Thompson’s shot totals compelling.
Check out my Maple Leafs prop picks for the Battle of the QEW game on Oct. 24.
-> Join NorthStar Bets to start betting on the Maple Leafs
Maple Leafs picks vs. Sabres
Best bet: Knies over 2.5 shots (+150)
This feels like a steal given Knies’ form and the team he’s playing against.
The American winger made a name for himself last season riding shotgun with Auston Matthews on Toronto’s top line. He was there for the first seven games this season, but Craig Berube is doing a major shakeup tonight.
Knies is projected to skate on the second line with John Tavares and Matias Maccelli, while Bobby McMann and William Nylander are slated to play alongside Matthews.
-> Bet on Matthew Knies to score tonight!
If anything, I think that could be a plus for Knies’ shot production. Keep in mind that Matthews was the go-to scoring threat on that first line.
While playing with Matthews and on Toronto’s top power play (where he still remains), Knies went 5-2 agianst this line while averaging 2.57 shots a night.
Tavares has logged 17:29 of ice time per game, so Knies should still have ample chances to throw pucks on net against the Sabres’ awful defence from Line 2.
Key stat: On a 6-minute basis, Buffalo is allowing the second-most shot attempts (68.14) and shots (33.14), per Natural Stat Trick.
Best NHL prop predictions
Thompson over 3.5 shots (+100): Thompson is one of the only reliable players on the Sabres. He’s coming off a 44-goal season where he led the team in several key offensive metrics:
- 1st in shot attempts per 60 (21.3)
- 1st in shots per 60 (10.2)
- 1st in points per 60 (3.03)
The American is back leading the team in shot attempts (29.15) and shots (12.11) on a 60-minute basis. He has gone over this mark in four of seven games.
-> Don’t miss out — Bet on Maple Leafs vs. Sabres prop markets
Toronto ranks around the middle of the league in terms of shots and chances allowed so far. But last year, the Leafs were among the worst teams in shot attempts allowed per game.
With Toronto’s entire defensive corps back in the mix, and a year older, I’m more inclined to put stock into last year’s numbers.
Thompson should be able to make noise tonight.
Maple Leafs picks made at 12:30 p.m. ET 10/24/2025.
-> Sign up to NorthStar Bets today!
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.