The Toronto Maple Leafs and Detroit Red Wings kick off the first leg of a home-and-home during Hockey Night in Canada on Saturday.
The pregame narrative: Toronto is a road favourite against its Original Six rival after winning its season opener against the Montreal Canadiens. Detroit also played Montreal in its first game and lost handily at Little Caesars Arena.
Check out my Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings picks, featuring a prop bet on Morgan Rielly.
Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings picks
Best bet: Maple Leafs 60-minute moneyline (+110)
These teams just aren’t on the same level.
Toronto is fresh off winning the Atlantic Division by posting a league-best 52 wins. Detroit, meanwhile, missed out on the playoffs for a ninth-straight season.
All in all, there was a 22-point delta between the rivals in the standings.
The Leafs are now without Mitch Marner, which certainly hurts, but I still think they’re much better than the Red Wings — especially in net.
Anthony Stolarz looked great on Wednesday, turning aside 29 of 31 shots in the Leafs’ 5-2 win.
He was one of the best goaltenders in the league last year, ranking first in save percentage (.926) and third in GAA (2.14). Toronto is also returning its entire defence corps, so I’m confident the Leafs can keep scoring down.
On the other end is Cam Talbot, who gets the nod after John Gibson got shelled by the Canadiens in Detroit’s first game.
Talbot ranked outside of the top 25 in GAA and SV% last year, and had an .817 SV% in three games against Toronto (all losses).
Key stat: The Maple Leafs went 3-1 against the Red Wings last year, winning twice in regulation.
Maple Leafs prop prediction
Rielly over 1.5 shots on goal (+110): There was a lot of buzz around Rielly heading into camp this year, as the veteran defenceman looks to rebound from a pretty disappointing 2024-25 season.
Team sources said Rielly was in “the best shape of his life,” and we got a pretty good indication that might be true after one game.
- The 31-year-old scored the game-winning goal in Toronto’s opener and added an assist while firing five shots on net.
- Rielly logged over 20 minutes of ice time and also led the Leafs in chances for (i.e shot attempts) with nine.
He should blow past this line if he has anywhere near that type of shot volume tonight.
Detroit allowed the 12th-most chances per game (59.94) last season.
Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings picks made at 9:45 a.m. ET 10/11/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.