The Toronto Maple Leafs host the Pittsburgh Penguins on Monday at Scotiabank Arena.
The pregame narrative: Toronto looks for a second consecutive win but will need to overcome a red-hot Penguins team led by Sidney Crosby. I expect a lot of goals in this game, so I’m backing Crosby to be productive as well as Toronto’s Matthew Knies.
Check out my Maple Leafs prop picks vs. the Penguins for the game on Nov. 3.
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Maple Leaf vs. Penguins predictions
Best Bet: Crosby over 2.5 shots (-112)
Crosby is having a great season, scoring nine goals and 17 points so far.
He started the year slowly but has turned in eight goals in his last nine games. The Penguins’ longtime captain wasn’t shooting much to start, but the chances have come in bunches lately.
- First eight games: 1-7 vs. this line
- Last five games: 4-1 vs. this line
Even at age 38, Crosby is playing close to 19 minutes a night. He is still the best player on a playoff-hopeful Penguins team that is 8-3-2 to begin the season.
-> Bet on Crosby and Knies tonight!
Plus, the Leafs provide a good matchup.
Toronto gives up 3.7 goals on 28.8 shots per game. Both of those are below-average in the NHL.
Key stat: Crosby had 11 shots in three games vs. the Leafs in 2024-25.
Best NHL prop picks
Knies to score (+155): I think there’s some strong value in backing Knies to grab a goal on Monday.
He is the only Leafs forward other than Auston Matthews to average more than 20 minutes on ice per game.
Knies has six more points than Matthews, though, scoring 15 in 12 games while his linemate has nine.
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So Matthews being priced at +105 just doesn’t sit right with me, especially when I can back Knies at +155.
Pittsburgh has excelled at limiting opponent goals (2.6 against per game), but it gives up the fourth-most shots (30.9/game).
Eventually, that should come back to haunt the Penguins, and Toronto is a team that can take advantage.
Maple Leafs prop picks made at 9:45 a.m. ET 11/03/2025.
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Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.