The Toronto Maple Leafs are on the verge of elimination after coughing up a 2-0 series lead to the Florida Panthers.
The pregame narrative: Florida has won three straight and is a hefty home favourite on Friday night. Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner are slumping at the worst time and will have to find a way past a surging Sergei Bobrovsky to keep Toronto’s Stanley Cup hopes alive.
Check out my Maple Leafs vs. Panthers best bets for Game 6 of the second round, featuring a fade on Marner.
Maple Leafs vs. Panthers best bets
Best Bet: Marner to not record an assist (+105)
This could be Marner’s final game as a Maple Leaf, and it looks like he’s going out with a whimper.
The embattled forward had a nightmare showing in Game 5. He logged zero points and made a careless turnover that ended up in the back of Toronto’s net.
I’m sure you’ve seen these splits before, but just take a look at what Marner has done (or hasn’t done, more accurately) in crunch time from 2020-21 onward:
- Games 1-4: 28 GP, 8 G, 26 A
- Games 5-7: 15 GP, 0 G, 6 A
A 0.4 PPG pace in these situations is a tough look for a player logging top minutes, and there is solid value backing Marner to not record a point at +155.
I’ll opt for a little more safety, though, by taking him to not record an assist at +105.
I’m also concerned about Matthews, who has just three goals in his last four playoff series. Toronto’s captain is snakebitten, and he tends to be Marner’s top beneficiary.
Key stat: Marner has failed to record an assist in six of 10 playoff games against Florida.
Game 6 pick
Under 5.5 goals (-118): Toronto was one goal away from putting a 3-0 stranglehold on this series.
Instead, none other than Brad Marchand scored the overtime winner, and the Maple Leafs have done nothing since.
Bobrovsky pitched a shutout in Game 4 and held Toronto to one late goal on 32 shots in Game 5. The Vezina-winning netminder is rounding into form and is the main reason why I’m taking this under.
I also expect Toronto to turn in a better effort, at least defensively, than on Wednesday.
The Maple Leafs have been a stingy team all season and aren’t afraid to clog shooting lanes and block a ton of shots. There is no excuse for Craig Berube’s group to leave anything on the table.
Maple Leafs vs. Panthers best bets made at 12:34 p.m. ET 05/15/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.