The Toronto Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers’ second-round series shifts to Sunrise on Friday.
The pregame narrative: The Maple Leafs are in uncharted waters in the “Core Four” era, taking a 2-0 lead with them on the road after a pair of nail-biting wins. Florida is heavily favoured to win Game 3 and hopes to get better goaltending from a struggling Sergei Bobrovsky.
Check out my Panthers vs. Maple Leafs best bets for Game 3 of the second round, featuring Brad Marchand and Max Pacioretty.
Maple Leafs vs. Panthers best bets
Best Bet: Maple Leafs +1.5 (-138)
Florida will throw its best shot at Toronto on Friday, guaranteed. After all, the Panthers are reigning Stanley Cup champs for a reason.
But I believe this Maple Leafs group is different, and I’m happy to bank a goal with them on the road.
Toronto has covered this line in all but one of its playoff games. The team has bought in defensively, blocking a whopping 25 shots and throwing 41 hits in Wednesday’s Game 2 win.
And throughout the entire postseason, the Leafs are giving up the fourth-fewest 5v5 shots per 60 (22.71), according to Natural Stat Trick.
I am most bullish on this play, though, because of the goaltending.
Joseph Woll was clutch when it mattered in Game 2 and has posted a 2.33 GAA and .940 SV% in three regular-season starts against Florida.
Bobrovsky, meanwhile, has allowed 18 goals in his last five starts with an .850 SV%. The netminder has proven to be streaky in his career, and Toronto’s offence is firing on all cylinders.
Will the Panthers win this game? Maybe. But I don’t think it will be in a blowout.
Key stat: Toronto has covered a +1.5 puck line in 18 of its last 20 games (3-1 vs. Florida in that span), winning 16 of those games outright.
Game 3 picks
Marchand to record a point (+100): Marchand has new threads, but he’s still the same old playoff menace.
- The former Boston Bruin has seven points this postseason (one goal, six assists).
- He’s cleared this line in four straight games (six total points), with three points against the Maple Leafs.
Marchand’s line with Anton Lundell and Eetu Luostarinen has dominated this matchup. They own a series-best 83.31% xG rate and have a 66.67% Corsi rate.
This seems like a great price to buy in on a historic Leaf-killer.
Pacioretty to record a point (+130): Pacioretty has been on a rampage since his promotion to the second line with William Nylander and John Tavares.
- He’s registered six points (two goals) in three games, going 3-0 against this line.
- Pacioretty has generated 16.69 chances per 60 since the move, second among all Maple Leafs skaters.
The veteran winger should keep getting run after coming in the clutch. He scored the series-winning goal against the Ottawa Senators and added another goal against the Panthers on Wednesday.
Nylander and Tavares hold -200 and -143 odds, respectively, to register a point in Game 3. They’re both on the top power play, unlike Pacioretty, but that still seems like a wild discrepancy for a guy creating plenty of chances.
Panthers vs. Maple Leafs best bets made at 9:00 a.m. ET 05/09/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.