The Washington Capitals host the Toronto Maple Leafs for a 5:00 p.m. ET start on Black Friday.
The pregame narrative: Toronto got back in the win column during Auston Matthews’ return on Wednesday, but still sits near the bottom of the Eastern Conference. Washington has been hot, winning five of its last six games, and is favoured to keep things rolling at home.
Check out my Maple Leafs vs. Capitals prop picks for the game on Nov. 28, featuring Alex Ovechkin and John Carlson.
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Maple Leafs vs. Capitals prop picks
Best Bet: Carlson to score a point (-106)
I want no part of the Maple Leafs tonight, and put little stock into Wednesday’s 2-1 victory.
Toronto has still lost seven of its last nine games while giving up 3.67 goals per game. And it would’ve lost to the Columbus Blue Jackets, too, if Joseph Woll hadn’t turned away 35 of 36 shots faced.
Expecting a repeat performance out of the young netminder is unreasonable.
The Maple Leafs give up the fifth-most chances (63.29) and second-most shots (30.79) on a 60-minute basis, per Natural Stat Trick.
Their defence is sieve-like, and now they’re catching a Capitals team heating up heading into the holidays.
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Washington is averaging 5.4 goals in its last five games, and Carlson has been at the forefront of that production. The defenceman has eight points in that stretch and is 4-1 against this line.
Carlson plays top-pairing minutes and isn’t afraid to shoot the puck. That means he can find the stat sheet with a tip-in or a teammate burying his rebound.
Key stat: Carlson is 9-2 against this line in his last 11 games.
Best NHL prop picks
Ovechkin to score (+125): In a perfect world, Carlson slides one over to Ovechkin, and the Great 8 puts it under the bar. We’ve seen it happen over 100 times, so why not tonight?
Ovechkin is the greatest goalscorer ever, and he hasn’t lost his touch after de-throning Wayne Gretzky.
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He’s scored seven goals in his last seven games, putting a slow start to the season in the rearview. In that stretch, Ovi leads Washington in scoring chances (19), is second in xG (3.01) and third in shots (17), per Natural Stat Trick.
Toronto is giving up the most goals per game in the Eastern Conference (3.61), so this is a Grade-A matchup for him to stay hot.
Maple Leafs vs. Capitals prop picks made at 11:15 a.m. ET on Nov. 28, 2025.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.