The Toronto Maple Leafs and Buffalo Sabres headline Friday’s NHL slate.
The pregame narrative: Buffalo’s defence and goaltending aren’t the strongest, so I’m taking the Leafs’ tog guns, Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, to find the scoresheet.
Check out our Maple Leafs props vs. Sabres for the game on Dec. 20.
Maple Leafs props vs. Sabres
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Best bet: Matthews to score (-110)
Matthews has been on a bit of a dry spell but all signs point to him snapping that tonight in Buffalo.
The Sabres’ goaltending room has a collective 3.41 goals against average, which ranks 26th in the NHL.
There was a lot of hype around this team in the off-season between the young talent and bringing back the winningest head coach in franchise history, Lindy Ruff.
So far, the first 32 games haven’t gone to plan as Buffalo ranks near the bottom in every defensive category:
- T26th in goals allowed/game: 3.41
- 22nd in shots allowed/game: 29.4
- 22nd in penalty kill: 77.4%
- 29th in penalty minutes/game: 10.7
Toronto’s captain is experiencing the lowest shooting percentage of his career (10.4), but that should imrpove after tonight.
The Sabres allow the second-most high-danger goals against per 60 (1.79) and have the second-lowest high-danger save percentage (75.42%), per Natural Stat Trick.
Buffalo’s defence gives up numerous quality chances per game and it doesn’t have the goaltending to make the big saves when needed.
The three-time Rocket Richard winner sees over 20 minutes of ice time a night and plays on the top line with a couple of studs in Marner and William Nylander.
Key stat: Matthews has 19 goals in 27 career games against the Sabres.
Quick pick
Marner over 0.5 power-play points (+145): Marner has been an assists demon this season.
He’s fourth in the league with 32, only trailing Jack Eichel, Nikita Kucherov and Nathan MacKinnon.
Twelve of those assists have come on the man advantage, which bodes well for this play.
As mentioned above, the Sabres own the 22nd-ranked penalty kill and take the fourth-most penalty minutes per game (10.7).
Marner leads all Maple Leafs in power-play points (16) and averages the second most power-play time on ice (3:16).
The former London Knight has produced seven goals and 25 assists in 26 games versus Buffalo in his career.
Picks made at 12:09 p.m. on 12/20/2024.
