The Toronto Maple Leafs host the Tampa Bay Lightning on Monday.
The pregame narrative: The Lightning are hot on the Leafs’ heels in the Atlantic Division and can make up some crucial ground with a win. With the way Toronto has played recently, I’m interested in prop picks on Tampa Bay’s Victor Hedman and Brandon Hagel tonight.
Check out my Maple Leafs props vs. Lightning for Jan. 20.
Maple Leafs props vs. Lightning
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Best bet: Hedman to record 1+ points (-130)
The big blue-liner is having another great year, recording 36 points in 42 games played.
Toronto started the season with one of the top defensive units in the NHL, but that hasn’t been the case lately.
Since Dec. 15, the Leafs have allowed 3.3 goals per game. That has raised their season-long average goals against from 2.5 to 3.1.
That’s a dangerous way to be playing with the Lightning in town. Tampa Bay leads the NHL in scoring (3.7/game) and has scored four-plus goals in four of the past six contests.
In those six games, Hedman has seven points and is 6-0 against this line.
Key stat: Hedman also has four points across a pair of games against the Leafs this season.
Quick pick
Hagel over 2.5 shots (-118): Nikita Kucherov unsurprisingly leads the Lightning in shots, but Hagel is just behind him.
- Hagel has 129 shots in 44 outings (2.9/game).
- The winger has cleared this line in 7/8 since Jan. 5.
Toronto is a solid defensive team but as mentioned before, the side has been struggling.
The Leafs give up the 10th-most shots per game (29.2), which is part of the reason why their goals against have increased significantly.
In the two previous meetings this season, The Lightning outshot the Leafs by a combined total of 75-58. They recorded 34-plus shots in both games.
Tampa has the offensive talent to once again out-chance Toronto during its poor run of defensive play, and Hagel has an enticing price on his shots prop.
Picks made at 11:45 a.m. ET on 01/20/2025.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.