The Toronto Maple Leafs host the New Jersey Devils on Thursday night.
The pregame narrative: Toronto hopes to end its homestand on a positive note and avoid a four-game skid. I’m backing Jack Hughes in the shots department while fading Auston Matthews in the same category. I also have a play on Timo Meier.
Check out my Maple Leafs props vs. Devils for Jan. 16.
Maple Leafs props vs. Devils
Go to full NHL betting markets.
Best bet: Meier under 0.5 points (-134)
The Craig Berube experience has been as advertised.
Not the most exciting hockey, but it gets results with a stout defence night in and night out.
- 2023-24 Leafs goals allowed per game: 3.06
- 2024-25 Leafs goals allowed per game: 2.84
Joseph Woll is the confirmed starter for the Leafs, and the fourth-year netminder has not disappointed. Woll’s play has been good enough for a 14-8-0 record with a 2.65 goals against average.
Meier has lost a step offensively since coming over from the San Jose Sharks to the Devils.
During his last two years in San Jose, Meier was nearly a point-per-game player (0.95), but his numbers have dropped in New Jersey.
Key stat: Meier has been limited to three points in his last nine games.
Quick picks
Matthews under 3.5 shots (-134): If you’ve been tracking my plays lately, you would notice a lot of material on players going under their shots total.
My next play goes against this, but it’s been working for Leafs’ players so I’ll keep backing down.
Matthews was a demon in the shots-on-goal department in December and early January but has cooled off since:
- Matthews cleared this line in 7/8 games between Dec. 7 and Jan. 4.
- Since then, he’s gone under this in five straight despite producing six points.
The Devils allow the third-least amount of shots per game in the league (25.6).
Hughes over 3.5 shots (-163): To borrow a phrase from Charles Barkley, Hughes has recently been “shooting that thang” at a high rate.
And with the Devils in second place in the East, I don’t see any reason for him to steer away.
The young superstar has cleared this line in eight of the last nine games, with 41 total shots over that span.
According to Natural Stat Trick, New Jersey has the highest expected goals rate per 60 (3.55). Toronto also ranks 24th in the NHL in shots allowed/game (29.1).
Picks made at 4:25 a.m. ET on 01/16/2025.
