The Toronto Maple Leafs aim to earn an important two points against an inferior Pittsburgh Penguins squad on Sunday.
The pregame narrative: Pittsburgh is playing its second game in as many days, which gives Toronto an advantage in a game where it’s already the better team. I’m expecting Auston Matthews to pepper the Penguins with shots, and I like Matthew Knies to find the score sheet.
Check out my Maple Leafs prop picks vs. the Penguins for March 2.
Maple Leafs prop picks vs. Penguins
Best Bet: Matthews over 3.5 shots (-134)
This is a very fair number to back Matthews at on most nights.
Toronto’s captain is also its top shooter. He leads the team in shots per game (3.93) and owns one of the most lethal shots in the NHL.
He’s operating with a shooter’s mindset ahead of this contest, too, registering 50 shots in his last 12 games (4.17).
The matchup is juicier than a cookout hamburger, as Matthews and the Maple Leafs battle a Pittsburgh team struggling all over the ice this season.
The Penguins are allowing the fifth-most shots per game (30.2) and are battling a rest disadvantage after losing to the Boston Bruins on Saturday.
Matthews has dominated the Penguins in two contests this season. He totalled four and eight shots, respectively, in his two dates with Pittsburgh.
Bet on Matthews to top this prop for the third time against the Pens this season.
Key stat: Matthews has recorded four-plus shots in eight of his last 12 games.
Quick pick
Knies to score 1+ points (-118): There are plenty of reasons to like this prop.
For starters, his recent form is encouraging. Knies has a point in seven of his past 11 games — including back-to-back — while averaging a healthy 18:03 in ice time.
Secondly, his deployment inside Toronto’s lineup is mouthwatering. Knies skates on the team’s first line alongside Matthews and Mitch Marner while also serving on the squad’s top power-play unit.
Playing consistent minutes with Toronto’s top talents is a huge positive for Knies’ production.
It helps that he’s staring down a date with a Pens squad that has been absolutely dreadful in their own zone. Pittsburgh is ceding the second-most goals per game (3.58) and has the second-worst save percentage in the league (.882).
Bet on a point from Knies in a plus matchup.
Picks made at 10:22 a.m. ET 03/02/2025.
Stevie’s an avid NFL, NHL, and tennis bettor who has no problem talking himself into the underdog. His previous stops include Yahoo! Sports Canada and Toronto Metropolitan University, where he received a degree in Sport Media.