Scotiabank Arena will have playoff-like atmosphere on Thursday when the Toronto Maple Leafs host the Florida Panthers.
The pregame narrative: Two points separate Florida from Toronto atop the Atlantic Division standings, and the Maple Leafs have a game in hand. I expect John Tavares to notch a point for the home team and Carter Verhaeghe to clear his shot total for the visitors.
Check out my Maple Leafs prop picks vs. Panthers for March 13.
Maple Leafs prop picks vs. Panthers
Best Bet: Tavares to score 1+ points (-148)
Mitch Marner has dominated the airwaves with contract talks swirling, but Tavares is also set to be a free agent this offseason and has set himself up for a nice payday should he choose to leave the Maple Leafs.
The veteran centre has 26 goals and 55 points in 57 games and has been red hot coming out of the 4 Nations Face-Off break:
- 9 games
- 5 goals
- 6 assists
- Points in 7 of 9 games
Tavares is on Toronto’s second line with William Nylander — who is scoring at a career-high rate — and Calle Jarnkrok. That means he won’t get matched against Florida’s shutdown line featuring Aleksander Barkov.
He’s also on the Leafs’ top power-play unit, which has been on fire lately.
Toronto’s PP is connecting at a 32.1% clip since the break (sixth-best in NHL). Tavares has five points on the man advantage in that span.
Florida is a great defensive team and Sergei Bobrovsky is in a groove but I like this price on a proven point producer.
Key stat: Tavares has a point in four of his last six games.
Quick pick
Verhaeghe over 2.5 shots (-130): Maple Leafs fans have to be a bit worried with the team’s defensive form right now.
Check out how Toronto has ranked defensively on a 60-minute basis since the league returned to action on Feb. 22, per Natural Stat Trick:
- 31st in chances (66.79)
- 26th in shots (30.37)
Strong goaltending has papered over those issues, which is why I would rather back Verhaeghe to clear his shot total than record a point (-118).
The winger only has one point in his last five games but has cleared this total three times while averaging 3.4 shots per game.
Maple Leafs vs. Panthers prop picks made at 9:17 a.m. ET 03/13/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.