The Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning meet for the final time this season, with the Atlantic Division potentially on the line.
The pregame narrative: The Maple Leafs have a two-point lead on the Lightning for the division’s top spot, but Tampa can leapfrog them with a win. I’m backing one player from both teams — John Tavares and Jake Guentzel — to perform.
Check out my Maple Leafs prop picks vs. Lightning for April 9.
Maple Leafs prop picks vs. Lightning
Best Bet: Guentzel over 2.5 shots (-141)
Toronto has been on quite the run, going 8-2-1 in its last 11 games. But elite goaltending has papered over major defensive deficiencies.
Check out how the Maple Leafs’ defence ranks on a 60-minute basis during that span, per Natural Stat Trick:
- 32nd in chances (68.66)
- 29th in shots (30.95)
- 24th in scoring chances (29.32)
Last night, the Florida Panthers out-chanced the Maple Leafs, 63-31, and out-shot them, 37-18.
Joseph Woll kept the Leafs in the game until the end, and Anthony Stolarz, who ranks second in GAA (2.26) and SV% (.922), should do the same tonight.
I’m not sure Guentzel will find the score sheet, but I love his chances of blowing by this shot total. The winger ranks third on the team in shots (209) and has cleared this mark in five of his last six games.
Key stat: Guentzel has cleared this mark in four of his last five games against the Maple Leafs.
Quick pick
Tavares to record a point (-141): Last night, I backed Tavares — Toronto’s lone goalscorer — to go over 2.5 shots at +125.
That didn’t cash, so I’ll simplify things this evening by backing the veteran centre to record a point. Take a look at what Tavares has done since March 1:
- 18 games
- 22 points
- 15 goals
He’s been Toronto’s best player heading down the stretch and doesn’t appear to be slowing down with the playoffs (and free agency) on the horizon.
Tavares is riding shotgun with the dynamic William Nylander and is playing the bumper position on Toronto’s top power play. He’s a good bet to find the stat sheet regardless of the opponent.
Maple Leafs vs. Lightning prop picks made at 12:20 p.m. ET 04/09/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.