The Toronto Maple Leafs and Los Angeles Kings have plenty of offensive star power featured in my top props for Saturday.
The pregame narrative: Matthew Knies and Andrei Kuzmenko are reliable secondary contributors for their respective squads, and both are nice values to score a point on Saturday. Auston Matthews‘ shot prop is a strong fade, though, as he enters a difficult matchup.
Check out my Maple Leafs prop picks vs. Kings for March 29.
Maple Leafs prop picks vs. Kings
Best Bet: Matthews under 3.5 shots (-130)
There’s good reason to bet against Matthews hitting this mark.
Firstly, this has been a down season for Matthews’ shot volume. The superstar is averaging 11.6 shots per 60, his lowest mark since the 2017-18 campaign.
That translates to 3.9 shots per game which does put him above this mark, but his recent play suggests a below-average performance is on deck.
Matthews has gone under this total in three of his last four games with the lone exception being a four-shot output against the San Jose Sharks. That game did go to a shootout and Matthews did log his second-highest minutes total of the season in that contest (25:07).
Most shooters struggle to find shooting room against the Kings. Los Angeles is ceding the second-fewest shots per game in the league (25.4).
Key stat: The Kings have the third-lowest Corsi against total in the NHL (3,921), according to Natural Stat Trick.
Quick pick
Knies to score a point (-108): It’s hard to deviate from a prop pick that’s been so successful.
Knies is enjoying a career year on all fronts. The Maple Leafs winger has set career highs in goals (25) and assists (24) in what’s been his breakout campaign.
His play has earned him prime real estate inside Toronto’s lineup. Knies skates with Matthews and Mitch Marner on the first line and is a valuable member of the squad’s power play.
Knies is rolling ahead of this contest as he enters with back-to-back multi-point outings. He has a point in three of his last four games and 15 of his last 24.
The Kings are a defensively stingy team, but they did just cede four tallies to the Colorado Avalanche in their most recent contest.
Toronto’s offence is seventh in goals-per-game and I’m betting Knies helps factor into the scoring for the Maple Leafs.
Kuzmenko to score a point (-104): It’s usually difficult for players to adjust to a new team after a mid-season move.
Try making that adjustment twice in one season. Kuzmenko was dealt from the Calgary Flames to the Philadelphia Flyers to the Kings all in the span of one season.
The winger has largely struggled to produce in all three destinations, but it does look like he’s beginning to heat up in Los Angeles. Kuzmenko has a point in three of his last four games (four total).
L.A. is certainly giving the forward ample opportunity to prove himself. He plays on the first line with Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe while also earning minutes on the top power play.
Those offensively friendly opportunities make Kuzmenko a solid pick in this market.
Maple Leafs vs. Kings prop picks made at 12:32 p.m. ET 03/29/2025.
Stevie’s an avid NFL, NHL, and tennis bettor who has no problem talking himself into the underdog. His previous stops include Yahoo! Sports Canada and Toronto Metropolitan University, where he received a degree in Sport Media.