Two slumping Canadian teams meet on Monday when the Toronto Maple Leafs host the Calgary Flames.
The pregame narrative: The Maple Leafs have lost five of their last six games and I expect their captain, Auston Matthews, to deliver a goal in a winning effort. On the other side, Jonathan Huberdeau is a good bet to clear his shot total.
Check out my Maple Leafs prop picks vs. Flames for March 17.
Maple Leafs prop picks vs. Flames
Best Bet: Matthews to score (-108)
Matthews needs to get going if the Maple Leafs want any chance at a deep playoff run.
The reigning Rocket Richard winner has just 24 goals in 51 games after posting a career-best 69 last season.
But these underlying numbers provided by Natural Stat Trick suggest he should be scoring at a much higher rate.
- First in xG per 60 (1.62)
- Fourth in shots per 60 (11.49)
- Ninth in chances per 60 (21.34)
Matthews is still creating plenty of chances, but a career-low 11.9% shooting percentage has hampered his production.
Is that just bad luck, or has his mystery ailment caused him to lose a step? It’s probably a bit of both, though I’m hoping his goal on Saturday did some heavy lifting on the mental side of things.
Matthews scored on an ugly giveaway by the Ottawa Senators and is slowly starting to find form, with goals in three of seven games this month.
The Flames have lost five of their last seven games, giving up eight goals in their last two losses.
Key stat: Dustin Wolf is likely to start in goal for Calgary tonight. He gave up five goals against the Maple Leafs on Feb. 4.
Quick pick
Huberdeau over 1.5 shots (-167): The Maple Leafs are reeling, making Huberdeau a prime target to clear a modest shot total.
Check out how Toronto ranks defensively on a per-60 basis since the 4 Nations Face-Off break ended:
- 28th in chances (64.52)
- 25th in shots (29.42)
Huberdeau has cleared this total in three of his last four games, logging four shots against the Dallas Stars and Vancouver Canucks and two against the Colorado Avalanche.
Looking back a little further, he’s gone over 1.5 shots in 10 of his last 15 and had a pair of shots against the Maple Leafs on Feb. 4.
Maple Leafs vs. Flames prop picks made at 10:43 a.m. ET 03/17/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.