The Toronto Maple Leafs head to their house of horrors to take on the Boston Bruins on Tuesday.
The pregame narrative: TD Garden hasn’t treated the Maple Leafs well in recent years, but Boston is struggling and Toronto is surging. Bet on Matthews Knies to record a point and take Auston Matthews and David Pastrnak to do the same in a parlay.
Check out my Maple Leafs prop picks vs. the Bruins for Feb. 25.
Maple Leafs prop picks vs. Bruins
Best bet: Knies to record a point (+100)
Toronto’s offence exploded out of the winter break, logging six goals against the Carolina Hurricanes and five against the Chicago Blackhawks.
Knies didn’t find the stat sheet in either game but that’s bound to change sooner than later.
The 22-year-old winger was on a heater entering the 4 Nations festivities, notching points in five of his last seven games before the break. He had five goals and four assists over that stretch.
He’s riding shotgun with Matthews and Mitch Marner on the first line and is on the top power play with that duo, as well as John Tavares and William Nylander.
That puts him in a fantastic spot to produce on a nightly basis.
Knies had the best game of his career the last time he played Boston, scoring a hat trick and adding two assists in a 6-4 victory.
It’s unclear whether Jeremy Swayman or Joonas Korpisalo will start in the net but neither has impressed. Both goalies have a sub-.900 save percentage and rank outside the top 30 in goals against average.
Also: Two of Boston’s top defencemen — Charlie McAvoy and Hampus Lindholm — are out with serious injuries.
The Leafs should roll tonight and I expect Knies to be a huge factor.
Key stat: Knies has eight points in his last three games against the Bruins.
Quick picks
Matthews and Pastrnak to record a point (-121): The value on this bet is too good to pass up. Matthews and Pastrnak sit at -278 and -315 to record a point, respectively, which makes sense considering their current form.
- Matthews has at least one point in six straight games with nine total points in that span. On the season, he’s found the stat sheet in 31 of 42 games (73.8%).
- Pastrnak has points in 14 straight games with 27 total points in that span. On the season, he’s found the stat sheet in 42 of 58 games (72.4%).
And both superstars tend to show up against the opposing team.
Pastrnak has 40 points in 31 regular-season games against Toronto and Matthews has 26 points in 21 regular-season games versus Boston.
Picks made at 1:28 p.m. ET 02/25/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.