The Toronto Maple Leafs visit the Detroit Red Wings in their first game back from the holiday break.
The pregame narrative: Toronto limped into the pause, losing back-to-back games without Auston Matthews. Its captain will likely be out again, but I’m picking the Maple Leafs to win in regulation. Matthew Knies is a nice choice to register a point in this contest, too.
Check out my Maple Leafs picks vs. Red Wings for Dec. 27.
Maple Leafs picks vs. Red Wings
Go to full NHL betting markets.
Best Bet: Maple Leafs to win in regulation (+107)
Toronto lost 4-2 in this spot roughly two weeks ago with Matthews in the lineup.
But there are a few reasons why I like the Maple Leafs to exact revenge on their divisional rival.
The first is rest. Toronto desperately needed the holiday break as the squad played seven games in 12 days before the pause.
Goaltending specifically is where I expect Toronto to benefit the most as the team was leaning heavily on Joseph Woll and Matt Murray with Anthony Stolarz sidelined.
Secondly, the Red Wings played poor hockey before the holidays. They lost three consecutive games, including a pair to the Montreal Canadiens, by a 13-4 margin.
These results aren’t surprising for a team that places 27th in expected goals percentage (46.6%), according to Natural Stat Trick.
Special teams, specifically the penalty kill, are why I favour the Maple Leafs in this contest. They’re tied for seventh in PK percentage (82.5%) while the Red Wings are 31st in the category (68.8%).
Toronto’s power play should be able to capitalize against one of the league’s worst penalty kills and win this game in regulation.
Key stat: Detroit is 7-9-2 at home this season and has lost back-to-back home games in regulation.
Quick pick
Knies to score 1+ points (-104): Knies’ spot in the lineup makes him too hard to ignore at this price.
The Toronto winger skates on the team’s top line alongside John Tavares and Mitcher Marner. Additionally, he’s on the first power play alongside those two, William Nylander, and Morgan Rielly.
Knies’ production was inconsistent before the break, with three points in six games but one of those was a goal against Detroit.
The power play is where Knies will be a real threat to convert. Detroit’s PK issues are well documented as it has conceded one power-play goal in three of its last five outings.
Knies is averaging a healthy 18:31 in ice time across his last 10 games. Expect him to be active offensively in this contest.
NHL picks made at 3:19 p.m. ET on 12/26/24.
Stevie’s an avid NFL, NHL, and tennis bettor who has no problem talking himself into the underdog. His previous stops include Yahoo! Sports Canada and Toronto Metropolitan University, where he received a degree in Sport Media.