The Toronto Maple Leafs get a major piece back in the lineup for Saturday’s game against the Tampa Bay Lightning.
The pregame narrative: Auston Matthews returns, but his injury doesn’t make up for some more negative developments for Toronto. With a laundry list of banged-up players, I expect a low-scoring game. Additionally, I’m siding with Tampa Bay to win as a home underdog.
Check out my Maple Leafs picks vs. the Lightning for Nov. 30.
Maple Leafs picks vs. Lightning
Best Bet: Under 6.5 goals (-120)
On paper, you’d imagine both of these squads being very good over teams.
But that’s not true in the slightest. The under has been the right play for both teams despite the immense offensive star power both squads possess.
Here’s how the Leafs and Lightning have fared on the totals market this season:
- Toronto ranks sixth in unders percentage (59.1%)
- Tampa Bay is 15th in unders percentage (52.3%)
Both are in the upper half of the league in the category.
Toronto is playing a very low-event style of hockey this season, winning with defence and goaltending instead of offence.
- Toronto places 18th in goals per game (2.95)
- Toronto is third in goals against per game (2.59)
The Maple Leafs also have some offensive injuries that add to the appeal of the under.
Yes, Matthews is back, but they’re going to be without some key forwards. Max Domi, Max Pacioretty and Matthew Knies are all on injured reserve while Bobby McMann is day-to-day.
Toronto’s offensive upside is capped with a litany of forward injuries. Expect a low-scoring game on Saturday night.
Key stat: The Maple Leafs have gone under this total in 10 of their last 12 games.
Quick pick
Lightning moneyline (+120): There are a few reasons why I like Tampa Bay to win as a home underdog.
The first is Toronto’s injury list. The team is potentially without four impactful forwards, which places pressure on a squad that doesn’t have much depth.
Additionally, the Bolts have been playing better recently. They’ve won five of their last eight games, scoring wins over top teams like the Winnipeg Jets, New Jersey Devils and Colorado Avalanche.
Tampa Bay rested Andrei Vasilevskiy in last night’s victory over the Predators, which means he likely starts tonight. The star puck-stopper has done very well over his last dozen games, winning seven with a .925 save percentage.
NHL picks made at 12:13 p.m. ET on 11/30/24.
Stevie’s an avid NFL, NHL, and tennis bettor who has no problem talking himself into the underdog. His previous stops include Yahoo! Sports Canada and Toronto Metropolitan University, where he received a degree in Sport Media.