The Toronto Maple Leafs and New York Islanders battle on Long Island on Thursday.
The pregame narrative: Toronto beat New York, 3-1, in a New Year’s Eve matinee two days ago. Auston Matthews remains sidelined, but I expect the Buds to pick up another win and Matthew Knies to record a point.
Check out my Maple Leafs picks vs. Islanders for Jan. 2.
Maple Leafs picks vs. Islanders
Go to full NHL betting markets.
Best Bet: Maple Leafs moneyline (-108)
Toronto enters the new year atop the Atlantic Division with a 23-13-2 record.
The Leafs have dropped three of their last five games, but their overall body of work is encouraging. And while Matthews’ mystery injury is concerning, the squad hasn’t missed a beat with him sidelined.
- Toronto is 9-5-0 without its captain this season.
- The Leafs are 44-24-2 without Matthews since he entered the league.
Strong goaltending and gritty, defensive play has been a big part of why the Leafs are succeeding without the reigning Rocket Richard winner.
Joseph Woll is having a breakout year, ranking 10th in goals-against average (2.48) and 11th in save percentage (.913).
He turned away 30 of 31 shots against the Isles on Tuesday.
New York isn’t a team that can pour it on offensively, either. The Isles are 14-17-7, scoring the seventh-fewest goals per game (2.63).
Combine that with underwhelming goaltending and I think the Leafs should win comfortably.
Key stat: New York allowed the seventh-most goals per game (3.62) in December.
Quick picks
Knies to record a point (-103): Knies is on a four-game pointless drought but he’s still getting plenty of opportunities.
The winger skates on Toronto’s second line alongside David Kampf and William Nylander. The latter leads the Maple Leafs in goals (23) and is second in points (43).
Knies is also playing on the first power-play unit, which will goes up against an awful Islanders penalty kill.
New York is killing a league-worst 63.9% of its penalties. That’s 5.7% lower than the Detroit Red Wings, who rank 31st.
Knies recorded a point against the Isles on Dec. 21 and had a team-high five shots on goal when they met on New Year’s Eve.
NHL picks made at 10:21 a.m. ET on 01/02/25.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.