The first Manchester derby of the season headlines this weekend’s EPL action.
The pregame narrative: Neither side is off to a great start this season, so this could be a chance for a potential winner to get back on track. Erling Haaland has been on fire to start his campaign, even with his club’s poor play.
Check out my Manchester City vs. Manchester United predictions, including props on Haaland and Amad Diallo.
Manchester City vs. Manchester United predictions
Parlay: Over 2.5 goals | Haaland to score | Diallo over 0.5 shots on target (+360)
Over 2.5 goals (-177): Both Manchester City and Manchester United currently sit outside of the top 10 in the EPL standings.
Despite that, there is some serious offensive potential here.
- Man U led the EPL in xG going into this weekend (6.8).
- Man City is not far behind with 5.8 xG.
The Citizens have Haaland, one of the most dangerous strikers in world soccer, while the Red Devils prioritized offence this transfer window, spending $170+ million on attackers.
These clubs don’t shine on defence, either. Both sides have conceded 4.0 or more xG through three matches.
This has all the makings of an exciting back-and-forth match filled with scoring.
Manchester City vs. Manchester United betting markets
EPL SGP legs
Haaland to score (-127): Haaland had a down season in 2024, but he looks to be back in top form. That’s a scary thing for opposing defenders.
- The Norwegian forward has contributed 3.9 of City’s 5.8 xG (leads EPL).
- Bournemouth’s Antoine Semenyo ranks second (2.7 xG), and he’s played one more match.
- Haaland has recorded 14 shots and three goals in his first three Premier League games.
It doesn’t mean as much, but he’s coming off a match with Norway in which he scored five goals.
Haaland ranks in the 90th percentile or better for touches in the attacking penalty area (6.40) and shots per 90 (3.64).
Diallo over 0.5 shots on target (+110): Diallo has worked his way into the starting 11 for United and is continuously getting more minutes from manager Ruben Amorim.
- Matchday 1: 36 minutes, one shot on target
- Matchday 2: 51 minutes, two shots (one on target)
- Matchday 3: 90 minutes, three shots (one shot on target)
As you can see, he is 3-0 against this line and is naturally getting more offensive chances with more playing time.
Diallo ranks in the 85th percentile among midfielders for shot-creating actions per 90 (4.85), according to fbref.com. This stat tracks the final two offensive actions leading to a shot.
He’s an offensive minded midfielder that should have good looks at goal on Sunday.
Manchester City vs. Manchester United predictions made at 12:37 p.m. ET on 09/13/2025.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.