The round of 16 begins at the Madrid Open on Wednesday, and I have a pick on the only Canadian left in action.
The pregame narrative: Surprisingly, that is Gabriel Diallo, as the 23-year-old has outlasted all fellow Canadians. However, I’m backing his opponent, Grigor Dimitrov, to win this matchup comfortably. After that, bet on Lorenzo Musetti as the underdog in his match.
Check out my top Madrid Open predictions for April 30.
Madrid Open predictions
Best Bet: Dimitrov -1.5 sets (+123)
I’m a big fan of Diallo, but there are many reasons to fade him here.
- Dimitrov, the No. 16-ranked player, is 5-1 on clay this year.
- He has played two matches at the Madrid Open, equalling just over three and a half hours of playing time.
- Diallo has taken part in five matches, which totals out to just under seven hours on the court.
The Canadian may be a decade younger than his competitor, but I find it hard to think Dimitrov won’t have the stamina advantage on Wednesday.
He’s just flat out the better player, too. Dimitrov had a 46-18 record in 2024 and is 14-7 in 2025.
Diallo, on the other hand, is ranked No. 78 in the world and carries a 16-12 record this year (6-4 on clay).
Key stat: Dimitrov is 11-3 since the start of March with the losses coming against De Minaur (No. 7), Novak Djokovic (No. 5) and Carlos Alcaraz (No. 3).
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Quick pick
Musetti to win (+110): Musetti is finding his groove at 23 years of age and developing into one of ATP’s top players.
The Italian is the highest he’s ever been ranked (No. 11) thanks to a 14-5 start this season. That includes an 8-1 record on clay.
It’s been his best playing surface throughout his career, as his 126-67 record stands out compared to his 107-99 record on all other surfaces combined.
In comparison, De Minaur has his worst winning percentage on clay (57.6%). Additionally, he lost to Musetti on the surface earlier this month (1-6, 6-4, 7-6).
Overall, Musetti is 2-1 in his career vs. the Australian.
Madrid Open predictions made at 4:48 p.m. on 04/29/2025.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.