I’m cooking up a +1,000 Super Bowl SGP for the final game of the NFL season.
The pregame narrative: Star quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts are featured in this five-leg play. A side and total pick also factor into this same-game parlay recommendation.
Here’s my suggestion on how to turn $10 into $100 in this long shot Super Bowl SGP for Chiefs vs. Eagles.
Long shot Super Bowl SGP
- Full Super Bowl Markets
- Super Bowl 59 Injury Report
- Kansas City Chiefs Team Stats
- Philadelphia Eagles Team Stats
SGP: Under 51.5 points | Hurts anytime TD | Hurts 30+ rushing yards | Mahomes 20+ rushing yards | Eagles ML (+1,000)
Under 51.5 points (-167): Both teams cleared this big number in their conference championship victories. And with so much star power, it’s not hard to talk yourself into a shootout.
But clearing this total has been rare for both teams.
- 16/19 Chiefs games went under 51.5
- 16/20 Eagles games went under 51.5
Philadelphia allowed an NFL-low 17.9 points per game this season. Kansas City was fourth at 19.4.
Every matchup is different, but the O/U record on this number is 6-14 over the last 20 Super Bowls.
Count on the quarterbacks
Hurts anytime TD (-134): Hurts rushed for three TDs last game and one the game before that.
He found the end zone in 12 of 18 contests this season.
Hurts will call his own number and get a crack at scoring if the Eagles are in short-yardage situations by the goal line.
Propelling Hurts forward might not be the most aesthetically pleasing football play but it’s effective. And the Eagles do it often.
Opportunity is important here and Hurts will have his chances in the red zone.
Hurts 30+ rushing yards (-230): Sticking with Hurts, he only managed to turn double-digit carries into 16 yards against the Washington Commanders in the NFC championship game.
But he reached this mark in two playoff games before that and three straight regular season games to close the year. In all, Hurts is 13-5 against this number this season.
He’s known for his one-yard TD scores, but Hurts was third in the NFL among quarterbacks in rushing yards per attempt.
Kansas City has had a strong season against the run. Slowing Saquon Barkley at any point could open up the door more for Hurts.
Mahomes 20+ rushing yards (-230): Mahomes had more than five rushing attempts in three of 16 regular season games.
He’s had six-plus carries in five consecutive playoff games, including a career-high 11 in Kansas City’s AFC championship victory over the Buffalo Bills.
No one should expect 43 yards and two scores again. But Mahomes can scramble when needed and the Chiefs’ running back situation isn’t exactly oozing with confidence.
Mahomes has averaged 29 rushing yards per game over 20 career playoff contests.
Eagles ML (+104): I’ve written about liking the Eagles to win and backing them as a favourite on an alternate spread.
The addition of Eagles on the moneyline has the longest odds of any leg in this parlay, driving the SGP from +600 to +1,000.
It’s a significant jump in payout potential for a pick I’m bullish on.
The Eagles are 15-1 since their Week 5 bye, Barkley has been as good as any offensive player and they’ve been the better team in several key areas.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.