For just the second time since last season’s earth-shattering trade, Luka Doncic returns to Dallas to face the Mavericks.
The pregame narrative: Naturally, I had to include Doncic in Saturday’s +310 same-game parlay. Dallas should be able to cover a teased-up spread against the Los Angeles Lakers, but Doncic is still a good bet to get some buckets beyond the arc.
Check out my same-game parlay Lakers vs. Mavericks picks, featuring a prop bet on Daniel Gafford.
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Lakers vs. Mavericks picks
SGP: Doncic 3+ threes | Gafford over 6.5 rebounds | Mavericks +8.5 (+310)
Doncic 3+ threes (-245): We’re easing into this SGP with a 3s milestone that Doncic hits with excellent consistency — especially right now.
- In his past 14 games, Doncic is 11-3 vs. this prop. He’s averaging 3.5 made 3s on 9.9 attempts in that span.
- Overall this season, Doncic has cashed this bet in 25 of 35 games (71.4%).
For the second time in three seasons, Doncic is averaging north of 10.0 attempted 3s. That kind of volume is going to make this milestone prop feel really safe most nights.
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Doncic put on a show in Dallas last year, dropping 45 points while shooting 7-for-10 from beyond the arc. He followed that up in L.A. this fall with a 4-for-9 showing from 3-point range against the Mavs.
NBA SGP pick
Gafford over 6.5 rebounds (+112): This leg is doing most of the heavy lifting for the SGP, but it seems like a pretty reasonable play at plus-money odds.
The main risk is that Gafford has missed four straight games with an ankle injury. But he’s listed as “probable” on Saturday’s injury report, so bettors should expect him back in the mix.
Gafford has cashed this bet in seven of his past eight games, averaging 8.4 RPG in that span. Last time out, he grabbed 10 boards in just 18 minutes.
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It’s certainly possible that Gafford will see fewer minutes tonight than usual since he’s been out for a week and a half. But with Anthony Davis and Dereck Lively both sidelined, Dallas can’t afford to be too easy on him.
Gafford is averaging 7.2 RPG in 20 games as a starter, so look for him to take advantage of that role once again.
Los Angeles vs. Dallas ATS prediction
Mavericks +8.5 (-265): When Dallas is getting points at home, the team is usually a tough out.
According to Team Rankings, the Mavs are 11-3-0 ATS (78.6%) as home underdogs. That’s the highest hit rate among the 28 teams that have been home dogs in at least three games this season.
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- The Lakers have failed to cover a -8.5 spread in 14 straight road games.
- Dallas is 10-3 ATS in its past 13 home games. In that span, the Mavs have underdog wins against the Heat, Rockets (twice), Pistons, Nuggets and Warriors.
Lakers vs. Mavericks picks made at 1:15 p.m. on Jan. 24, 2026.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.