Despite a dud from Jalen Brunson, the New York Knicks got into the win column in Game 3 and can level the Eastern Conference finals on Tuesday night.
The pregame narrative: Brunson finished with 23 points on 6-of-18 shooting, and he spent the majority of the final quarter glued to the bench. The Indiana Pacers are 2.5-point home favourites to win tonight and claim a commanding 3-1 series lead.
I’m targeting Brunson and Andrew Nembhard in my Knicks vs. Pacers prop picks for Game 4 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on May 27.
Knicks vs. Pacers prop picks
Best bet: Nembhard over 11.5 points (-108)
Nembhard fits in perfectly with the Pacers, a team built on depth over superstardom.
Though he’s unlikely to put up gaudy volume stats, the Aurora, Ontario, native is an expert in efficiency.
His 50.0/50.0/83.3 shooting splits are superb. And there are enough opportunities on a nightly basis for me to feel good about this point total.
Check out his averages through 13 playoff games:
- 14.0 points/game
- 10.5 field-goal attempts/game
- 33.6 minutes/game
Those averages make this total look well within reach, and the steadiness of Nembhard’s stat lines backs it up.
He has attempted seven-plus shots in every game while playing 30-plus minutes in 11 of 13.
I don’t mind that Nembhard is coming off a 2-for-9 shooting effort. A night like that has been an anomaly, and his high floor overall makes this play worthwhile.
Key stat: Nembhard has gone over 11.5 points in nine of 13 postseason games.
Game 4 prop prediction
Brunson under 30.5 points (-127): With a little juice, I think this price is worth it to fade Brunson on the road at a big number.
His home/road splits in the playoffs aren’t wildly different, but there are still notable discrepancies.
- Home (8 games): 31.9 PPG, 47.8 FG%, 36.5 3PT%, 8.8 free throws/game
- Road (7 games): 27.6 PPG, 41.7 FG%, 33.3 3PT%, 7.6 free throws/game
Brunson has now gone under this total in four straight road games, as well as five of seven overall.
He has also struggled to stay out of foul trouble, committing 13 fouls through three games in this series. That sort of behaviour can bite into his minutes.
The Knicks staged a fourth-quarter comeback largely without Brunson in Game 3, so maybe they don’t need to lean on him quite as hard as many people think.
Knicks vs. Pacers prop picks made at 11:32 a.m. ET 05/27/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.