After a stunning pair of road victories, the Indiana Pacers are back home for Game 3 of the Eastern Conference finals with a chance to push the New York Knicks to the edge.
The pregame narrative: Indiana never trailed in the fourth quarter of Game 2, and now the team is just two wins shy of its first NBA Finals appearance since 2000. It’ll be an uphill climb for the Knicks, but they are 5-1 on the road so far in the playoffs (with four underdog victories).
Check out my Pacers vs. Knicks SGP predictions for Game 3 on May 25, featuring Karl-Anthony Towns, Josh Hart and Aaron Nesmith.
Pacers vs. Knicks predictions
Parlay: Hart under 10.5 points | Towns 10+ rebounds | Nesmith 2+ threes (+335)
Hart under 10.5 points (-129): Hart has been whisper-quiet so far in this series, totalling just 14 points through two games on nine shots.
In Game 2, he spent the first six-and-a-half minutes of the fourth quarter on the bench as the Knicks gave Miles McBride some crunch-time run. That’s not a good omen for Hart.
Hart’s 24-point night against Boston in Game 5 of the second round is starting to look like an anomaly when you stack up the rest of his recent performances.
Over his past six games, Hart has cashed this under five times. And he’s shooting just 41.7% from the floor in that span.
I just don’t trust that Hart will be involved enough on offence to clear this number.
NBA SGP legs
Towns 10+ rebounds (-195): KAT only had seven rebounds in Game 2, but that’s an outlier compared to his recent production.
- In his past 10 games, Towns is 8-2 vs. this milestone while averaging 12.1 RPG.
- He also has 55 total boards in five matchups vs. the Pacers this season.
Indiana has allowed more rebounds to opponents than any other Eastern Conference playoff team. The Pacers don’t employ a 7-footer, which is part of the reason, and they play at the fastest pace of all the East teams.
KAT’s main rebounding rival is probably his teammate, Mitchell Robinson. But Robinson is a free throw liability who also happened to roll an ankle in the second half on Friday.
Even if Robinson has a normal workload (20-25 minutes), there should be enough time for KAT to get 10 boards.
Nesmith 2+ threes (-165): After going nuclear in Game 1, shooting 8-for-9 from deep, Nesmith had a more subdued showing in Game 2. But he still cashed this milestone, and I want to buy back in.
Keep in mind that the fifth-year forward has been putting on a 3-point shooting clinic for months.
- March: 2.8 threes/game, 45.8 3PT%
- April: 2.5 threes/game, 50.0 3PT%
- May: 3.3 threes/game, 56.1 3PT%
Nesmith has cashed this bet in nine of 12 postseason games, including a 2-for-3 showing in Game 2.
I don’t understand why the Pacers aren’t consistently giving him more chances than that, but his efficiency makes him worth backing regardless.
Knicks vs. Pacers predictions made at 11:25 a.m. ET 05/24/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.