The Dallas Stars and Winnipeg Jets meet for a pivotal Game 4 on Tuesday night.
The pregame narrative: Dallas is favoured to win and take a commanding 3-1 lead after torching Connor Hellebuyck in Game 3. The Jets look to get something out of their Vezina-winning goaltender, who has been horrible on the road this postseason.
Check out my Jets vs. Stars prop picks on Thomas Harley and Tyler Seguin for Game 4 on May 13.
Jets vs. Stars picks
Best bet: Harley to record a point (-122)
The playoff lights are far too bright for Hellebuyck.
In the regular season, the netminder led the league in goals against average (2.01) and was second in save percentage (.925). That was enough to earn him a Hart Trophy nod, and almost certainly, a third Vezina trophy.
But the playoffs have been nothing short of a disaster for Hellebuyck, especially on the road.
- The American has an .845 SV% and 3.51 GAA in 10 starts.
- He has allowed 5+ goals in all four road games, being pulled from the net three times.
- Hellebuyck ranks 24th out of 26 netminders in goals saved above expected per 60 (-0.992), per MoneyPuck.
Dallas’ offence has been strong at home this postseason after getting held to one goal in the very first game. The Stars have scored 19 goals in four games at American Airlines Center since, and I expect another shelling tonight.
Harley seems like the best value to get on the board.
The 23-year-old defenceman is leading the Stars in ice time (27:11 per game) and has points in seven of 10 playoff games.
He’s 5-0 against this prop at home this postseason, and he skates on the top power-play unit (featuring the red-hot Mikko Rantanen).
Key stat: Hellebuyck has allowed 4+ goals in eight straight road playoff games.
Game 4 prop prediction
Seguin to record a point (+104): Seguin is another Star I want to target tonight.
The veteran winger hasn’t found his way onto the score sheet this series, but it’s not for lack of effort.
His line with Jamie Benn and Matt Duchene is generating a 67.74% Corsi rate and 72.04 xG rate, according to Natural Stat Trick.
Seguin had cashed this bet in four of seven games against the Colorado Avalanche in Round 1 and ranks sixth on Dallas with 35 chances (i.e., shot attempts) this postseason.
Stars vs. Jets prop picks made at 11:08 a.m. ET 05/13/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.