Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets hope for better luck their second time around.
The pregame narrative: Rodgers makes his long-awaited return from an Achilles injury that cost him the 2023 season. It’s not an easy takeoff for the Jets as a primetime date with the San Francisco 49ers awaits. I’m fading New York any way I can.
Check out the best Jets vs. 49ers best bets for Week 1’s Monday Night Football matchup below.
Jets vs. 49ers best bets
Go to full Jets vs. 49ers betting markets.
Best Bet: 49ers -4.5 (-110)
I think New York is getting a little too much credit ahead of the 2024 season.
Don’t believe me? Check out the odds to win the AFC East. The Jets (+170) have the shortest odds to win the division at NorthStar Bets.
But I’m not buying the hype. For starters, we don’t even know how good Rodgers is. This is a 40-year-old quarterback (turning 41 in December) who was declining before rupturing his Achilles a season ago.
Rodgers had an unimpressive 6.8 yards per attempt and 12 interceptions (his most since taking over for Brett Favre with the Green Bay Packers) in his most recent full season.
The counterargument people like to make is that the Jets can’t possibly get worse quarterback play than what they’ve had. That part might be true, but it isn’t an endorsement of Rodgers by any stretch.
He doesn’t get to dip his toes into action against a weak defence, either. This is a 49ers defence that still has playmakers all over the field, featuring edge rushers like Nick Bosa and Leonard Floyd who can get after the QB.
New York’s defence is legit, but the 49ers have plenty of playmakers who can wreak havoc. I expect the latter to do enough against the former to cover this spread.
Key stat: San Francisco went 7-3 at home last year, boasting an average margin of victory of 7.1 points at Levi’s Stadium.
Quick picks
Jets under 0.5 touchdowns – first half (+215): This wager has some juicy odds but I can get behind it.
I suspect New York’s offence will sputter out of the gate. Rodgers’ reps with this team have almost been exclusively limited to training camp, giving him next to no game action with this offence. Expecting him to excel from the jump seems ludicrous.
San Francisco was very good at limiting opposing offences in the first half of games last season. Opponents averaged 9.6 first-half points per contest against the 49ers in 2024.
Under 43.5 points (-108): This is a natural addition to my betslip with my expectations set very low for New York’s offence.
But I’m not anticipating a banner day from San Francisco, either. The Jets’ defence deserves its plaudits as they held opponents to the 10th-fewest points per game (20.9) in the NFL in 2023.
Additionally, the 49ers’ offence hasn’t had a whole lot of time to practice together this offseason. Christian McCaffrey was out with a calf injury for most of training camp, Brandon Aiyuk was limited due to contract negotiations and star left tackle Trent Williams was holding out for a new deal.
San Francisco’s offence should score enough to cover, but I don’t think it’ll need bunches of points to do so.
NFL picks made at 2:14 p.m. on 09/08/2024.
Stevie’s an avid NFL, NHL, and tennis bettor who has no problem talking himself into the underdog. His previous stops include Yahoo! Sports Canada and Toronto Metropolitan University, where he received a degree in Sport Media.