The Japan Open has reached the round of 16 and the world’s No. 1-ranked men’s player is in action.
The pre-match narrative: Carlos Alcaraz has taken hold of the top spot in the rankings after an amazing season. He gets a chance to improve his success in Tokyo, but needs to get past Zizou Bergs in their first-ever match.
Check out my top Japan Open predictions for the round of 16, featuring a pick on Brandon Nakashima vs. Marton Fucsovics.
Japan Open predictions: Round of 16
Best bet: Alcaraz/Bergs under 18.5 games (-117)
This is my way of backing Alacaraz while avoiding his -590 price tag to win in straight sets.
The Spaniard unsurprisingly blew through Sebastian Baez in 18 games in his first match in Tokyo.
He’s now 121-29 in his career, and 24-4 in 2025, on hard courts.
Now Alcaraz faces a similar level of competition in Bergs, who needed two tiebreakers to squeak past Alejandro Tabilo in the first round.
Tabilo’s 16-14 record on hardcourts is unimpressive, and he’s coming in losing three of his last five matches.
There’s nothing there to make me think this match will be competitive.
Key stat: Alcaraz has an incredible 89% win rate in his service games this season on outdoor hard courts.
Japan Open best bet: Nakashima vs. Fucsovics
Fucsovics ML (+104): Fucsovics has the momentum coming into this match.
He’s 40-19 overall this year with an outstanding 18-4 record on hard courts. He needed to qualify for this event, but cruised through both matches, winning every set.
Fucsovics then defeated No. 29-ranked Frances Tiafoe in the round of 32. He hasn’t faced the best competition, but that win over the Frenchman proves he has what it takes to beat quality players.
Nakahsima falls a tier below Tiafoe, ranking 33rd on tour.
- He’s 30-24 this season with a decent 18-12 record on this playing surface.
- He needed all three sets to get past No. 78 Jordan Thompson in the last round.
The American has done enough to stay afloat, but he’s fallen short in big matches.
Additionally, Fucsovics is 1-0 vs. Nakashima in his career. That match was contested on an outdoor hard court, and the Hungarian won in straight sets (6-2, 6-4).
Tennis predictions made at 12:25 p.m. on 09/26/2025.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.