Canadians Bianca Andreescu and Leylah Fernandez will take the court in Rome on Sunday and headline my Italian Open predictions.
Today’s Italian Open narrative: Andreescu and Fernandez both find themselves in the Round of 32. Fernandez earned a convincing win in her lone match, and I expect her to be competitive against Marta Kostyuk. I’m skeptical of Andreescu, however, in a very difficult matchup against Elena Rybakina.
Check out my Italian Open predictions for May 11.
Italian Open predictions
Best Bet: Fernandez +3.5 games (-106)
Let’s get the obvious out of the way: Fernandez is not a proficient clay-court player.
The Canadian is 48-40 on the surface in her career and an even 8-8 across the last two years.
Theoretically, however, clay should suit the Canadian’s skills. She’s a strong baseline player who moves effectively around the court.
Typically, those are the traits that upper-echelon clay courters possess.
She looked dominant, however, to begin her run in Rome. Fernandez ousted Antonia Ruzic convincingly in straight sets (6-4, 6-0).
She battles a competitor in Kostyuk who has provided some solid results on clay. She’s 14-7 on the surface since 2024.
These two players have never squared off before, but the fact that their only separated by one spot in the WTA rankings suggests that this should be a tight match.
Kostyuk (26th) holds a slight edge over Fernandez (27th).
Expect the latter to make things interesting against the former.
Key stat: Fernandez has covered this spread in all four of her clay-court matches this year.
Quick pick
Rybakina vs. Andreescu under 20.5 games (-120): Don’t expect this one to go the distance.
There are a lot of factors working against Andreescu in this contest.
The first is her head-to-head record versus Rybakina. The Canadian has done very poorly against her Kazakhstani counterpart.
Rybakina is a perfect 3-0 against Andreescu, winning all six of their sets.
These two just met on clay, and the results weren’t pretty for Andreescu. She lost 6-3, 6-2 at the Madrid Open.
Andreescu isn’t the only woman on the WTA tour who has fallen victim to Rybakina on the clay courts. Rybakina is a dominant 25-5 on this surface since 2023, advancing to the quarterfinals at last year’s French Open.
Andreescu is solid yet unspectacular on this surface. She’s 31-18 in her career and just 8-8 since 2023.
The under on this total has cashed in each of their last two clashes.
Italian Open predictions made at 3:21 p.m. on 05/10/2025.
Stevie’s an avid NFL, NHL, and tennis bettor who has no problem talking himself into the underdog. His previous stops include Yahoo! Sports Canada and Toronto Metropolitan University, where he received a degree in Sport Media.