College football makes a triumphant return on Saturday in Dublin, Ireland, where the Iowa State Cyclones and Kansas State Wildcats square off in a key Big 12 matchup.
The pregame narrative: No. 17 Kansas State is the conference favourite, and it’ll have a tough test out of the gate against No. 22 Iowa State. The Wildcats are 3-point favourites at this season opener overseas.
Check out my Iowa State vs. Kansas State predictions — featuring Chase Sowell and Avery Johnson — for the Week 0 matchup on Saturday, Aug. 23.
Iowa State vs. Kansas State predictions
Best Bet: Sowell over 57.5 receiving yards (-120)
On an international stage, I expect Sowell to have a coming-out party.
Coming over from the East Carolina Pirates, Sowell will make his debut for a Cyclones team that desperately needs to replenish its stores in the receiving room.
Iowa State had a pair of 1,100-yard receivers last year, Jayden Higgins and Jaylen Noel, and both players have since moved on to the NFL. Behind Higgins and Noel, no one in Ames had more than 300 receiving yards.
With that in mind, Sowell’s opportunity from the jump should be massive. He has the size, pedigree and big-play potential to be the alpha of this offence.
- Listed at 6-foot-3 and 210 pounds on ESPN, Sowell is built like a legitimate X receiver.
- 247 Sports ranked him as the No. 7 transfer WR (and the No. 30 transfer overall) this offseason.
- With East Carolina last year, Sowell averaged 19.9 yards per reception in nine games.
Kansas State’s secondary should have some growing pains earlier in the season, too, which would help Sowell find some daylight. The Wildcats graduated two defensive backs to the NFL and are set to feature four new starters in the season opener.
The Wildcats’ four new projected starters in the secondary saw a combined 200 snaps at the FBS level last year.
Remember, Iowa State no longer has its top wideouts, but its starting quarterback — Rocco Becht — is still under centre. I think Sowell will quickly become his top target.
Key stat: Sowell averaged 75.3 yards per game last season with East Carolina, going 6-3 vs. this prop.
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Cyclones vs. Wildcats picks
Johnson over 50.5 rushing yards (-120): Johnson is a dual-threat quarterback who was particularly active in the run game against Iowa State when these teams met last season.
On Nov. 30, 2024, Johnson rushed 13 times for 64 yards. That includes being sacked once (in college football, unlike the NFL, sacks count against QB rushing yards).
K-State’s top tailback in 2024, DJ Giddens, now plays for the Indianapolis Colts. Johnson was right behind Giddens in team rushing yards with 605.
Iowa State’s defence was mediocre against the run last year, ranking 73rd in expected points added (EPA) per rush, according to Game On Paper. That might explain why Johnson was so successful.
Johnson rushed with confidence down the stretch last season, going 4-2 vs. this prop in his final six matchups while averaging 10.3 carries per game.
Over 50.5 points (-112): Both rosters have a lot of turnover, which is commonplace in NCAA Division I football.
But they both retained their talented QBs, and that gives me faith that offence can win out in Ireland.
Becht ranked No. 3 in passing yards in the Big 12 last year (3,505), pairing that with a 25:9 TD-to-INT ratio.
Johnson, meanwhile, led Big 12 quarterbacks in rushing yards (605) and was third in rushing TDs (seven) — one behind Becht, actually.
K-State and ISU combined for 50 points in last year’s matchup, so inching just north of that mark is all I’m asking for.
In 2024, overs were 2-0 when the Cyclones were underdogs, and overs were 6-5-1 when the Wildcats were favoured.
Iowa State vs. Kansas State predictions made at 3:10 p.m. ET 08/21/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.