The Miami Heat will be without Jimmy Butler as they visit the Golden State Warriors on the second night of a back-to-back.
The pregame narrative: Against a weary Heat team, I expect the Warriors to take care of business at home. Prop picks on Stephen Curry and Dennis Schroder round out this +325 SGP.
Check out my Heat vs. Warriors same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 7.
Heat vs. Warriors predictions
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Parlay: Warriors -5.5 + Curry over 5.5 assists + Schroder under 3.5 rebounds (+325)
Warriors -5.5 (-230): This is a terrible spot for a visiting Heat squad on a three-game losing skid.
Last night, each of Miami’s starters played over 40 minutes in its 123-118 double-overtime loss to the Sacramento Kings. Now, the Heat head into the Chase Center for its third game in four nights.
Without Butler, who’s serving a seven-game suspension for multiple instances of violating team conduct, the Heat are struggling to drain shots — especially from distance.
- Vs. Utah: 9-for-35 (25.7%) from beyond the arc.
- At Sacramento: 11-for-42 (26.1%) from three.
Meanwhile, Golden State has effectively defended the perimeter, holding opponents to a 34.8 percent rate on their threes.
Coming off a humiliating 129-99 loss to the Kings, Steve Kerr’s squad should be motivated to wrap up their six-game homestand on a positive note.
The rest advantage significantly favours a Warriors team that I expect to win by double digits. But to be safe, I am opting for an alt-spread.
SGP legs
Curry over 5.5 assists (-136): Golden State’s star point guard sees a favourable matchup to stir up scoring plays.
Curry is averaging 6.3 assists and 10.2 potential assists for the season. Also, he eclipsed this mark in five of his last seven games.
Meanwhile, Miami has allowed 9.7 assists per game to opposing point guards (fifth-most), per BettingPros.
It’s a nice bounce-back spot for Chef Curry, who failed to record a dime against the Kings. Before that, he notched 10 assists over the Sixers.
Playmakers Domantas Sabonis, Colin Sexton and Tyrese Haliburton tallied eight-plus assists in their recent matchups against the Heat.
Schroder under 3.5 rebounds (-148): For the final leg, I’m fading a player prop that’s been very profitable.
Over his 10 games as a Warrior, Schroder is 8-2 against this line and averaging just 2.6 rebounds per game.
The guard has also failed to eclipse 3.5 rebounds in 13 of his last 15 games dating back to his time with the Brooklyn Nets.
Golden State plays a small-ball style and often loses the rebound battle with a height disadvantage.
Even with the loss of Jonathan Kuminga to a sprained ankle, I say this line has been adjusted a tad too high.
Picks made at 11:25 a.m. ET 01/07/2025
