The top-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers host the Miami Heat on Sunday night in Game 1 of their opening-round Eastern Conference playoff series.
The pregame narrative: Ty Jerome is a bit of an unsung hero for the Cavaliers, and I think his points prop is in bargain territory. On the other side, Tyler Herro is a reliable, high-volume shooter from 3-point range that should can a few triples tonight.
Check out my Heat vs. Cavaliers prop picks for April 20.
Heat vs. Cavaliers prop picks
Best Bet: Herro over 2.5 threes (-103)
There are three reasons why I think this is a great pick for Game 1 of tonight’s series between Miami and Cleveland:
1. Herro shot 37.5% from 3-point range on 8.7 attempts this year. That means he was routinely putting himself in position to cash this bet.
2. He’s been torching the Cavaliers in recent matchups. Herro has 3+ threes in five straight games against Cleveland. In two meetings this season, he shot 9-for-19 from deep.
3. Herro came up clutch in the play-in tournament. In a pair of must-win games, he dropped 30+ points twice and shot 8-for-17 from deep.
Cleveland posted a top-10 defensive rating this season, but the more fearsome component of its defence is the interior tandem of Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley.
The Cavaliers ranked 13th in the NBA in 3-point percentage, attempts and makes this season. So not a plus matchup, per se, but not a terrible one, either.
I love where Herro’s 3-point volume has been all season, and his recent form combined with success against the Cavs makes this worth a look.
Key stat: Including the play-in games, Herro has cashed this bet in 51 of 79 games (64.6%).
Quick pick
Jerome over 9.5 points (-110): Through his first five NBA seasons, Jerome averaged just 7.0 PPG and bounced between four organizations.
It seems he’s found a home in Cleveland, though, where he blossomed into a remarkably productive bench option this season.
Jerome played 70 games (three starts) and averaged 12.5 PPG on 51.6/43.9/87.2 shooting splits.
He hit the 10-point milestone in 43 of 70 games (61.4%) — including all three against the Heat. And he only shot 4-for-15 from deep in the Miami matchups, so it’s not like he just happened to get hot beyond the arc.
Heat vs. Cavaliers prop picks made at 11:41 a.m. ET 04/20/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.