The Cleveland Cavaliers’ offence was humming in Game 1 against the Miami Heat, and I expect more of the same in Game 2 on Wednesday night.
The pregame narrative: My +335 SGP includes a prop bet on Donovan Mitchell and an alt team total for the Cavaliers. I also like Tyler Herro to go under his projected assist total.
Check out my Heat vs. Cavaliers playoff SGP predictions for Game 2 on April 23.
Heat vs. Cavaliers predictions
Parlay: Cavaliers over 110.5 points | Herro under 4.5 assists | Mitchell 3+ threes (+335)
Cavaliers over 110.5 points (-157): Cleveland put up 121 points in the series opener, and that shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone. The Cavs averaged 121.9 points per game during the regular season, after all.
There are six Cleveland players who average 12.0 or more points, so the depth is phenomenal.
NBA Sixth Man of the Year finalist Ty Jerome demonstrated that depth in Game 1, going off for 28 points on 10-of-15 shooting.
Cleveland boasted the best offensive rating in the NBA this season (121.0) and cashed this bet in 35 of 41 home games.
Oh, and the Cavaliers have scored 112-plus points in all four matchups against the Heat this year.
NBA SGP legs
Herro under 4.5 assists (-106): Herro averaged 5.5 assists during the regular season, but his role as a passer started to shift once Davion Mitchell settled in.
Mitchell, who came over from the Toronto Raptors, has embraced the point guard role for a Miami team that had been operating on a facilitator-by-committee basis.
From March 17 through the end of the regular season (14 games), Herro took a clear back seat:
- Herro: 4.4 APG, 42.5 passes/game, 8.3 potential assists/game
- Mitchell: 6.3 APG, 52.4 passes/game, 10.6 potential assists/game
Including the postseason, Herro has gone under 4.5 assists in 12 of 16 games.
Also, Cleveland allows the third-fewest assists to opposing shooting guards (4.46/game), per Betting Pros.
Mitchell 3+ threes (-220): Let’s talk about a different Mitchell now — the one known to rain 3s for the Cavaliers.
Donovan Mitchell had an off night from beyond the arc in Game 1, shooting just 2-for-9. But the shot volume was encouraging, and if it keeps up, I’ll always like this milestone.
On the season, Mitchell averaged 3.3 threes per game on 36.8% shooting.
He was even better at home, averaging 3.4 threes on 39.9% shooting. Mitchell is 25-11 against this line in home games this year.
Heat vs. Cavaliers predictions made at 11:20 a.m. ET 04/23/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.