The NBA-best Oklahoma City Thunder begin their playoff run on Sunday against the Memphis Grizzlies.
The pregame narrative: OKC has been unstoppable all season, and I expect it to cover a lofty spread in its postseason opener behind a typical Shai Gilgeous-Alexander performance. On the other end, back Zach Edey to rack up rebounds.
Check out my Grizzlies vs. Thunder play-in SGP predictions for April 20.
Grizzlies vs. Thunder predictions
Parlay: Thunder -11.5 | Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points | Edey 10+ rebounds (+300)
Thunder -11.5 (-134): The Thunder (68-14) just put together one of the greatest regular seasons in NBA history — and that’s not an exaggeration.
- OKC’s 82.9 win percentage is the sixth-best all-time and the second-best this century behind the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors.
- The Thunder’s +12.8 net rating is second-best all-time behind the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls.
Memphis isn’t a bad team by any stretch, and its 48-34 record would have been good for the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference.
But the Grizzlies are running into a buzzsaw that has already gashed them a few times this season.
OKC went 4-0 vs. Memphis this year, winning each game by at least 13 points.
NBA SGP legs
Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points (-195): I think the MVP race will be closer than some anticipate, but SGA should get the nod after a stellar season.
- The Canadian guard led the league in scoring (32.7 PPG) while shooting 51.9% from the field.
- He has 30+ points in 49 of 76 games, including 25 of 39 at home.
Gilgeous-Alexander cleared this milestone in all four games against the Grizzlies this season. In the two games at Paycom Center, he dropped 35 and 37 points on combined 29-of-44 shooting (65.9%).
Memphis allowed the third-most PPG to opposing point guards in the last 30 days of the season, according to Fantasy Pros.
Edey 10+ rebounds (-210): I’ll happily add Edey recording double-digit boards to nearly any SGP, as long as he keeps getting big minutes.
Check out what the Canadian centre has done since being reinserted into the starting lineup on March 29.
- 13.5 rebounds/game
- 11+ rebounds in 8 of 10 games
- 13+ rebounds in 6 of 10 games
Edey went 0-3 against this line vs. OKC this year, but never played more than 20 minutes. He’s had 30-plus minutes of playing time in five straight games.
The 7-foot-4, 305-pound big man should feast against a Thunder team which ranked a pedestrian 19th in rebounding rate.
Grizzlies vs. Thunder predictions made at 1:30 p.m. ET 04/19/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.