The Denver Nuggets host the Memphis Grizzlies on Friday in a game with massive playoff implications.
The pregame narrative: Denver (48-32) occupies the fourth seed in the West but is just one game ahead of Memphis (47-33), which is currently seventh and in the play-in. Bet on the Nuggets to cover an alt spread alongside Nikola Jokic and Ja Morant props.
Check out my Grizzlies vs. Nuggets SGP predictions for April 11.
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets predictions
Parlay: Nuggets -3.5 | Jokic 25+ points | Morant 8+ assists (+320)
Nuggets -3.5 (-195): Denver made waves on Tuesday when it fired NBA championship-winning head coach Michael Malone after a four-game losing streak.
Was that a good idea? It’ll take some time to bear out, but the Nuggets responded with a 124-116 win over the Sacramento Kings on Wednesday. In the short term, I expect Denver to keep rolling into the playoffs.
The Nuggets have the fourth-best home offensive rating in basketball (120.6) and catch the Grizzlies playing on a back-to-back.
Memphis lost 141-125 last night and now has to travel to play at altitude — this seems like a prime fade spot.
NBA SGP legs
Jokic 25+ points (-345): The odds indicate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will win the MVP, but Jokic is making a strong case to snap that away.
The Serbian superstar is averaging 32.5 points, 13.0 rebounds and 9.4 assists since March 1. In that span, he has crushed this milestone:
- 25+ points in 10 of 14 games
- 30+ points in 8 of 14 games
Jokic scored 20 points his last time out against the Kings despite only taking 12 shots. In the three games before that, he dropped 41, 33 and 63 points.
I expect the three-time MVP to take over this game and lock in a favourable playoff seeding.
Morant 8+ assists (+107): One of the reasons Malone was fired was shoddy defence, and I don’t expect the Nuggets to right that ship within days of his departure.
- Denver has the eighth-worst defensive rating at home.
- The Nuggets allow the third-most assists per game (29.0).
Morant is 3-6 against this line in his last nine games, but he’s also landed on seven assists three times. This is a good matchup for him to over-index.
I’m also not worried about the point guard playing on a back-to-back. Morant is averaging 9.0 assists in six games with no rest.
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets predictions made at 1:00 p.m. ET 04/11/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.