Theo Johnson, a native of Windsor, Ontario, is my top pick to score a touchdown on Monday Night Football.
The pregame narrative: Jaxson Dart will be back under centre for the New York Giants, and I view that as a good thing for Johnson’s TD chances. As for the host New England Patriots, Rhamondre Stevenson’s short-yardage opportunities are worth buying in on.
Check out my Giants vs. Patriots TD picks for Monday Night Football on Dec. 1.
-> Join NorthStar Bets to start betting on the NFL
Giants vs. Patriots TD picks
Best bet: Johnson to score (+255)
Dart’s return for the Giants is a plus for Johnson’s opportunity to score for a couple of reasons.
- Coming off a two-game absence due to a concussion, it’s fair to expect Dart to run less often. He’s been evaluated for a concussion four times over eight games since the preseason, per ESPN, and his Week 10 concussion came on his sixth designed run of the game.
- In his first seven starts, Dart has more rush attempts inside the 10-yard line (nine) than pass attempts (seven). So if there’s a concerted effort to protect him, those numbers should flip.
- Dart and Johnson have chemistry that stems from their time competing against each other in college. In October, Dart recalled Johnson scoring a touchdown in a Penn State vs. Ole Miss game (the 2023 Peach Bowl), and he noted that Johnson stood out athletically.
- Dart added this on Johnson: “He’s been nothing but just hardworking and a guy who you can really trust out there on the field.”
-> Bet on Johnson to score at +255 on Monday Night Football
That could just be podium-speak, but there are some results to back it up.
Half of Dart’s 10 TD passes this year have gone to Johnson. The tight end cashed this bet in four of six games from Weeks 4-9.
And the Patriots should provide a decent matchup here, given that they’ve allowed 6.3 receptions per game to opposing tight ends (tied for fifth-most in the NFL).
New England has allowed a league-low four rushing TDs all year.
Key stat: Johnson has at least four targets and three catches in six consecutive games, proving that he’s a steady contributors in the Giants’ offence.
Monday Night Football anytime TD prediction
Stevenson to score (+210): While sitting out three games with a toe injury, Stevenson lost his RB1 job to rookie TreVeyon Henderson. But Stevenson’s goal-line opportunities don’t seem to have gone away.
- Stevenson had a season-low snap share (31%) in Week 12, and he only carried the ball six times. But half of those carries came in the red zone — including two inside the five-yard line.
- Henderson, by comparison, had 18 carries and a 65% snap share, per RotoWire. But he only saw one handoff inside the red zone.
-> See full Giants vs. Patriots MNF betting markets
In three fewer games, Stevenson has out-carried Henderson inside the five-yard line, 9-4.
The fifth-year tailback out of Oklahoma has 10 carries inside the 10-yard line in his past five games, with at least one touch inside the five-yard line in each of those.
Henderson is the more dynamic and explosive runner, but Stevenson has 25 pounds on him. With a steady floor as a goal-line option, Stevenson is an enticing play on Monday night.
Especially because the Giants have allowed the most rushing yards (157.2/game) and third-most rushing TDs (1.4/game) this season.
Giants vs. Patriots TD picks made at 11:40 a.m. ET on Dec. 1, 2025.
-> Sign up to NorthStar Bets today!
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.