The Toronto Blue Jays aim to earn a quick series win over the San Francisco Giants following the all-star break.
The pregame narrative: Toronto got to Justin Verlander early on Friday night. I don’t expect Logan Webb to last very long, either. San Francisco’s offence was stymied in the loss, and the unit, including Willy Adames, shouldn’t have much success in Saturday’s contest.
Check out my Giants vs. Blue Jays picks for July 19, featuring Webb and Nathan Lukes.
Giants vs. Blue Jays picks
Best Bet: Webb under 18.5 outs (-110)
Fading Webb isn’t something bettors should look to do often, but several factors are working against him today.
Webb is typically very efficient. He has an 80th percentile strikeout rate, which he pairs with an 87th percentile walk rate.
On Saturday, he’s battling a very disciplined Blue Jays lineup. Toronto averages the fewest strikeouts per game (6.71) and is 11th in walks per outing (3.35).
Webb can give up a healthy amount of contact, which is trouble against a group hitting as well as the Blue Jays. He has ceded six-plus hits in nine of his last 10 outings.
The righty hasn’t had a whole lot of success against this current lineup, either. Toronto hitters are batting .385 with a .561 expected SLG across 26 plate appearances.
If Webb isn’t able to generate Ks and Toronto can stretch out its at-bats, this could be a rather quick outing for him.
Key stat: Webb has only topped this line in five of his last 10 starts, and is coming off his worst outing of the season (six earned runs, two home runs allowed).
Quick picks
Adames under 0.5 hits (+128): It doesn’t take much for Adames to ruin my day and go over this prop, but I’m skeptical of his chances of recording a knock.
Firstly, Adames isn’t an elite hitter.
He’s averaging .221 on the campaign and only has a hit in two of his last six games.
Additionally, Adams has been especially dreadful against lefties like Toronto’s Eric Lauer.
He owns a brutal .156 average against southpaws, and Lauer doesn’t give up a whole lot of contact. The veteran hurler has an 80th percentile expected batting average this year (.218), according to Baseball Savant.
The odds are juicy enough here for me to fade Adames.
Lukes to score 1+ run (+125): Lukes hasn’t scored a run in his last five games, but I’m betting he turns that around on Saturday.
The outfielder leads off versus righties because he’s fared very well against them this season. He owns a strong .286 average against right-handed pitchers, which is significantly better than his average versus left-handed pitchers (.143).
Lukes was scoring often before his recent five-game dry spell. He scored in seven of the previous nine games, totalling nine runs during that stretch.
Hitting ahead of George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Addison Barger, I like Lukes’ chances of scoring on most nights.
Blue Jays picks made at 8:4 a.m. ET on 07/19/2025.
Stevie’s an avid NFL, NHL, and tennis bettor who has no problem talking himself into the underdog. His previous stops include Yahoo! Sports Canada and Toronto Metropolitan University, where he received a degree in Sport Media.