The round of 64 at Roland-Garros begins on Sunday with three Canadians in action.
The pregame narrative: Felix Auger-Aliassime is the highest ranked of the bunch, but he’s been struggling lately despite a semifinal appearance at the Hamburg Open. Denis Shapovalov looks to get his season on track, and Gabriel Diallo will participate in his second Grand Slam major.
Check out my top French Open predictions for the men’s tennis matches on May 26.
French Open predictions
Best bet: Matteo Arnaldi to beat Auger-Aliassime (+102)
Both players took part in events earlier this week. As mentioned, the Canadian had a deep run at the Hamburg Open, while Arnaldi lost in the quarterfinal of the Geneva Open.
Auger-Aliassime had a good year on clay in 2024, posting a 17-8 record. But his 3-5 start to this season shows regression over improvement.
His Italian counterpart made a run at the Madrid Open, beating Novak Djokovic and Frances Tiafoe in straight sets before being eliminated by a red-hot Jack Draper.
Arnaldi looked primed for another run in Geneva before running into Djokovic once again and losing this time around.
Those are acceptable losses to two top-10 players and don’t take away from his successful month.
The 24-year-old went 115-45 on clay between 2021-23. He had a tough 2024 due to injury and a slow start to this season, but he appears to be finding his form again.
On the other side, Auger-Aliassime has never been amazing on clay. Plus, he hasn’t been playing well over the past couple of months.
Key stat: Auger-Aliassime has a 4-8 record since March 1, with six of those losses coming against opponents ranked outside of the top 20.
Full French Open betting markets.
Fade the Canadians
Pedro Martinez +1.5 sets vs. Shapovalov (-108): Neither of these players has been impressive to start 2025.
Shapovalov is 13-10 overall but 1-4 on clay, which is what’s important heading into Sunday.
His opponent hasn’t been any better, as Martinez has a 6-10 record on the red dirt.
If we scope out, though, and look at their careers overall, Martinez is an experienced player on clay. He has a 360-198 career record on the surface.
Since the start of 2022, Shapovalov is 13-17 on clay. During that time, the Argentine is 100-74.
He doesn’t have to win, but I like Martinez’s chances of keeping this match close enough for this wager to cash.
Francisco Cerundolo -2.5 sets vs. Diallo (+100): There’s little room for error with this pick, but I also see value in this line.
Diallo won their first career matchup back in October, but it was on a hardcourt surface, and Cerundolo is nothing short of a clay specialist.
The 26-year-old’s 274-118 (69.9% win rate) rivals the best in the world. It also dwarfs his 41-37 record on hard surfaces.
He has a 19-8 record on clay in 2025, including two wins over No. 3-ranked Alexander Zverev.
Diallo has a 7-6 record on clay this season (16-14 overall). I’ll happily find a way to back the experience of Cerundolo at plus money.
French Open predictions made at 1:54 p.m. on 05/23/2025.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.