Gabriel Diallo is taking his “lucky loser” status into his first match at the Indian Wells Open against Arthur Fils.
The pregame narrative: After losing a qualifier, Diallo was a replacement in the round of 128 and won. Now he faces Fils for the second time in his career and I expect another closely contested match.
Check out my Fils vs. Diallo predictions and the tennis odds for the round of 64 Indian Wells Open match on Friday, March 7.
Fils vs. Diallo predictions
Go to full Fils vs. Diallo betting markets.
| Betting markets | Odds |
| Fils to win | -139 |
| Diallo to win | +112 |
| Over 22.5 total games | -127 |
| Under 22.5 total games | +100 |
Fils vs. Diallo odds as of 8:35 a.m. ET on 03/07/2025.
Best Bet: Over 22.5 games (-127)
In the first meeting between these two, at the 2024 US Open, the Canadian came away with the win and he dug deep to earn it.
Diallo won three of the four sets, but they were all very close (7-5, 6-7, 6-4, 6-4). That equals 45 total games, which is quite a lot for a four-set match.
There are only a maximum of three sets on Friday. With a total of 22.5, two close sets would be enough for the over.
That was often the case for the Candian on his path here.
Key stat: All three of Diallo’s qualifying matches went over this total, even though two were decided in straight sets.
Indian Wells Open pick
Diallo to win (+112): Neither player has been in top form but Diallo’s been slightly better and much more active.
Let’s take a look at their 2025 records:
- Fils: 5-4 (4 matches since Feb. 1)
- Diallo: 9-6 (8 matches since Feb. 1)
Plus, Diallo has the upper hand in the head-to-head matchup.
He started slow, splitting the first two sets with Fils in the 2024 match. But he won the final two sets (6-4, 6-4) without much worry.
And while Fils is 3-3 on outdoor hard courts this season, Diallo has faired better with an 8-5 record.
The Canadian should be able to use his strong serve that led to 28 aces through three qualifying matches.
There isn’t much splitting these two, but I’ll happily back the more active player at an underdog price.
Picks made at 8:35 a.m. ET on 03/07/2025.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.