The Minnesota Vikings are back in prime time as they host the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday Night Football in Week 2.
The pregame narrative: Justin Jefferson played a key role in Minnesota’s comeback win last Monday, and he should be heavily involved for the Vikes in their home opener. These teams played in a shootout last year, with Minnesota earning a 42-21 win.
Check out my Falcons vs. Vikings picks for the Week 2 Sunday Night Football matchup on Sept. 14.
Falcons vs. Vikings picks
Best bet: Jefferson 70+ receiving yards (-136)
Jefferson’s first game with new quarterback J.J. McCarthy got off to a slow start. Like, really slow.
In the first half of the Vikings’ season opener, Jefferson had just two targets and four receiving yards.
For a guy who averaged 10.0 targets and 100.4 yards per game over the previous three seasons, that’s just not going to cut it.
But the veteran wideout stayed patient and positive with the inexperienced McCarthy, and eventually they clicked. In the second half, Jefferson caught three of five targets for 40 yards and a touchdown.
This video, clipped from the Vikings’ YouTube page, shows the level of communication McCarthy and his WR1 had throughout the game:
Jefferson’s uptick in target volume and production in the second half is something I expect to carry forward. He’s too dangerous to be kept quiet for long.
- Also, on a rate basis, there was nothing concerning about Jefferson’s involvement. He had a 35.0% target share, which exceeded his sky-high share last season (29.9%, third in the NFL, per Hashtag Football).
- With Sam Darnold under centre last year, Jefferson torched the Falcons for 132 yards and two TDs.
I’m not suggesting he’ll repeat those results, but a 70-yard milestone is easily within reach for arguably the best receiver in the NFL.
Key stat: Jefferson is averaging 95.8 yards/game in his career, which is an NFL record. His lowest single-season average entering this year was 87.5 yards/game.
Sunday Night Football over/under pick
Over 44.5 points (-109): After some frustrations and miscues earlier on, Minnesota scored 21 fourth-quarter points in its opener to complete a comeback win on the road — and cash the over.
I’m a Kevin O’Connell believer, and I expect he’ll have the McCarthy-led offence ready from the jump in Week 2.
In addition to an all-world receiver in Jefferson, the Vikings have an enviable backfield tandem (Aaron Jones, Jordan Mason) that combined for 142 scrimmage yards and a TD in Week 1.
On Atlanta’s side, neither Drake London nor Darnell Mooney carries injury designations into this matchup. Mooney missed Atlanta’s opener, so it’ll be nice for the team’s top two receivers to be in the mix.
When these teams met last December, they combined for 63 points and 929 yards.
Both quarterbacks are different, mind you, but I don’t know that either one is a downgrade — at least not to the extent that I expect a 19-point cutback in total points.
Over Minnesota’s final six home games last season, the average total was 49.3 points.
Falcons vs. Vikings picks made at 3:20 p.m. ET 09/12/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.