Three picks from three different leagues — Bundesliga, La Liga and Serie A — make up this weekend’s top soccer predictions.
The pregame narrative: Atletico Madrid hosts Osasuna in a clash that has high-scoring potential and I believe Borussia Monchengladbach can go toe-for-toe with Bayern Munich. I also have a play on Italian sides Genoa and Parma.
Check out this weekend’s best European soccer predictions for games on Jan. 11-12.
Soccer picks and predictions
Go to full Bundesliga betting markets
Best Bet: Borussia Monchengladbach +1.5 (-121)
Fading one of the fiercest clubs in Europe isn’t as scary as it seems.
Although Bayern sits atop the Bundesliga table, with an 11-3-1 record, its defence has been susceptible and often keeps quality opponents in games.
- Bayern hasn’t kept a clean sheet in its last six overall matches.
- It had draws vs. Frankfurt and Borussia Dortmund and lost at Mainz.
Under Vincent Kompany, the Bavarians deploy a high defensive line by sending all 10 players to press in the attacking third.
That strategy could backfire against a Monchengladbach side that has the pacy forwards — like Franck Honorat and Alassane Plea — to transition quickly and exploit space on the counter.
The Foals are joint-leaders in Bundesliga with 23 fast-break shots, per The Analyst.
With Dayot Upamecano suspended, Bayern’s backline is down a key defender that could effectively send aerial passes and has the pace to thwart counterattacks.
In great form, Gladbach has a 5-3-1 record in its last nine matches. It has draws to German giants Dortmund (1-1) and RB Leipzig (0-0) over that stretch.
The Foals, the biggest riser in Germany’s top flight, are flying under the radar and capable of giving Bayern a scare.
Key stat: At home ground, Gladbach is 7-1 against the +1.5 Asian handicap.
Quick picks
Atletico Madrid/Osasuna over 2.5 goals (-120): Atletico has emerged as a serious contender in the La Liga title race, coming off a 2-1 victory over Barcelona in December.
See all La Liga markets
Diego Simeone’s attack is flooded with quality forwards like Antoine Griezmann and Julian Alvarez, along with top scorer Alexander Sorloth coming off the bench.
The formidable trio has combined for 20 goals this season.
Although Atletico is sound defensively, Osasuna has the attacking prowess to find the score sheet.
Under Vicente Moreno, the Little Reds often press their opponents to disrupt build-up play and send in crosses into the penalty area (at the third-highest rate in La Liga).
Osasuna thrashed Atletico 4-1 in its last trip to Metropolitano.
Genoa/Parma under 2.5 goals (+104): These are two bottom-half clubs in Serie A with subpar attacks.
Teams often have trouble puncturing Genoa’s backlines. The group uses three central defenders and two wingbacks to gain numerical advantages in the defensive third.
Parma is likely to compete without its top chance creators Dennis Man and Adrian Bernabe. Responsible for taking free-kicks and corners, the duo has combined for 53 created chances this season.
Bet now on Serie A
Patrick Vieira’s side has allowed three goals in its last six matches, including a clean sheet against AC Milan.
In the previous match at Torino, the Crusaders generated a measly 0.38 expected goals. They took just a single shot from inside the 18-yard box.
This has all the ingredients for a low-scoring affair and there’s lots of value in backing the under.
Picks made at 11:43 a.m. on 01/08/25.
