This week’s top EPL prop pick comes from the early matchup of the season: Liverpool vs. Arsenal.
The pregame narrative: Cody Gakpo’s season is off to a hot start, and the Dutch national should be involved in the Reds’ offensive attack on Sunday. Elsewhere, I’m looking for Nottingham Forest striker Chris Wood to find the net against West Ham.
Check out my favourite EPL prop picks for Week 3 of the Premier League season.
EPL prop picks
Best bet: Gakpo over 0.5 SOT (-130)
This fixture will be a must-see chess match, as Arne Slot’s electric offence looks to break down Mikel Arteta’s stout backline.
Liverpool led the league in goals per match (2.3), xG (83.5) and SOT per match (6.1) last season, while Arsenal was tops in goals conceded (0.9) and xG against (35.1).
So who will win out?
Last year, it was Liverpool’s offence, as the Reds scored two goals in all three matchups against Arsenal.
Gakpo made noise in his lone start against the Gunners, scoring a goal on two shot attempts in 66 minutes.
The Dutch winger has become a mainstay in Slot’s attack and has played at least 89 minutes in all three games this season. At home, I think he’s a good bet to fire one on net past Arsenal’s backline.
Key stat: Gakpo has a SOT in five of his last nine games for Liverpool dating back to last season.
Best Matchday 3 picks
Wood to score (+135): I don’t envy Graham Potter’s situation one bit. The West Ham manager took over a mess last January, and things haven’t gotten better since.
- West Ham is 2-4-7 in EPL action since Potter took over.
- The Hammers have lost all three fixtures (two EPL, one Carabao Cup) this season, while conceding a whopping 11 goals.
- They’ve also conceded a league-high 12 SOTs across two matchdays.
It’s open season for any team going up against the London side, and I expect Nottingham to feast at its home venue, City Ground.
And who better to back than Wood, the late-blooming New Zealander who scored 20 goals as Nottingham’s No. 9 last year?
Wood has scored in both games for the Tricky Trees this season.
He also ranks in the 81st percentile for non-penalty goals per 90 compared to positional peers in Men’s Big 5 Leagues, UCL, and UEL over the last 365 days, per FBRef.
EPL prop picks made at 10:20 a.m. on 08/28/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.