I’ve got two picks as the Premier League returns for a mid-week slate starting on Tuesday.
The pregame narrative: Everton has been in solid form and I expect it to pick up points on the road against Brentford on Wednesday. Elsewhere, look for Tottenham and Manchester City to provide fireworks in London.
Check out our EPL Matchday 27 predictions.
EPL Matchday 27 predictions
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Best Bet: Everton to win or tie (-127)
The hottest team in England isn’t Liverpool or Arsenal, but rather Everton.
The Toffees have been surging under David Moyes, posting a. 4-2-1 record since he took over as manager for Sean Dyche in early January.
That includes a recent 2-2 draw against Manchester United and, more impressively, a 2-2 draw against Liverpool in the Merseyside Derby.
The only match Moyes failed to pick up points in was a 1-0 loss to Aston Villa in his first game as a manager (while posting a nearly identical xG to Villa). Since then, he’s cashed this wager in six straight contests.
On Wednesday, Everton hits the road to take on a strong Brentford side. The Bees are 7-4-2 at home but that still means opponents are cashing this wager 46.1% of the time.
Brentford has conceded the seventh-most xG (41.4), according to FotMob. I expect Everton — which is averaging 2.3 goals across its last six games — to get on the board.
Everton and Brentford drew the reverse fixture, 0-0, back in November.
Key stat: Everton has a +3.8 xG differential under Moyes, per FBRef.
Quick pick
Tottenham/Manchester City over 3.5 goals (-118): This season has been a disaster for both clubs, which have struggled to defend following a rash of injuries.
Scoring hasn’t been a problem for either side, though, and all signs point to a barn burner on Wednesday.
- Tottenham ranks 16th in xG conceded (44.0) and sixth in xG created (44.3).
- Man City ranks 10th in xG conceded (36.0) and fourth in xG created (47.5)
Tottenham thrashed Man City 4-0 at the Etihad in the reverse fixture earlier this season, showing how dangerous the Postecoglou’s attack can be.
Spurs also scored four goals in their most recent fixture, a 4-1 win over Ipswich Town.
City was just blanked, 2-0, by Liverpool but had gone over this total in six straight league games beforehand while averaging 3.3 goals.
Four of the last six meetings between these clubs have gone over 3.5 goals,
Picks made at 10:43 a.m. on 02/24/25.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.