I’ve got two bets for this action-packed weekend in the Premier League.
The pregame narrative: I spot value in backing Fulham to secure a road victory over bottom-feeding Leicester City. After that, Ipswich Town hosts Manchester City, and I expect both teams to get on the scoresheet.
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EPL Matchday 22 picks
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Best Bet: Fulham to win (-106)
This is a prime bounce-back spot for the Cottagers.
Clumsy errors from their backline led to a 3-2 defeat against West Ham on Tuesday. Despite the loss, they held the Hammers to just four shots and six touches inside the box.
Unlike West Ham, Leicester is not an effective high-pressing side.
Since Ruud van Nistelrooy came over as manager, it’s allowing the second-most passes per defensive action (PPDA) at 15.41, per Understat.
Marco Silva’s side can expose the Foxes by dominating wide areas with overloads to stir up scoring chances.
Led by left-back Antonee Robinson, with nine assists to his ledger, Fulham has the highest number of crosses into the penalty area. Meanwhile, Leicester is 17th in allowing crosses into the penalty area.
The Cottagers won 2-1 in the reverse fixture, generating 1.78 expected goals (xG) to Leceister’s 0.61.
On the road, Fulham is 3-4-3 (seventh in EPL) with impressive wins over Chelsea and Nottingham Forest.
Although the Foxes have the advantage of playing a third straight home fixture, they’re no match against an angry Fulham squad.
Key stat: Before Wednesday, Leicester lost in five straight matches.
Quick pick
Ipswich Town/Manchester City – Both teams to score (-154): This is a juicy line, but I believe it’s worth playing.
There is no doubt that City can score off an Ipswich defence, averaging a woeful 2.09 xGA (second-worst in the EPL).
However, there are no signs of improvement in its defence — evident in the 2-2 thriller at Brentford on Tuesday.
Without Rodri in midfield and injuries to the backline, City lacks the pace to effectively counter-press its opponents. As a result, the side is leaving acres of open space for opponents to rip shots in defensive areas.
Despite sitting 18th in the table, Ipswich has shown flashes of brilliance in attack by bringing tons of speed on the counter.
The Citizens have kept just four clean sheets over 21 league matches.
Picks made at 1:45 p.m. on 01/15/25.
