I’ve got two bets for the first Premier League matchday of the calendar year.
The pregame narrative: Look for Brentford to score a couple on the road against relegation-contending Southampton. On Saturday, Wolverhampton hosts red-hot Nottingham Forest in what I expect to be a feisty and low-scoring matchup
Check out the best EPL Matchday 20 picks.
EPL Matchday 20 picks
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Best Bet: Brentford over 1.5 total goals (+105)
On record, Brentford is one of the league’s worst away sides, with just two points off nine matches. However, the strength of competition should be taken into consideration.
In their away fixtures, the Bees faced a gauntlet of top sides (Liverpool, Manchester City, Chelsea, Tottenham) and haven’t clashed against a bottom feeder — until this weekend.
Brentford is an aggressive attacking team, with Bryan Mbeumo controlling the right flank, Yoane Wissa wreaking havoc in the box and its best free-kicker Mathias Jensen returning from injury.
The attack should do damage off a Southampton side that averages a league-worst 2.25 expected goals allowed (xGA) per 90 minutes and has conceded 11 goals off set-pieces.
With hopes of escaping the relegation zone, Southampton hired experienced manager Ivan Juric in late December. However, the backline has continued to allow a flurry of chances.
In their recent 2-1 defeat to Crystal Palace, the Saints allowed both goals from set-piece plays and it’s a defensive flaw the Bees can exploit — and have before.
The reverse fixture in August saw Thomas Frank’s side thump Southampton for three goals, including one from a long throw-in.
Brentford’s road form is due for positive regression, and I say there’s value in backing it to score a couple off a poor defensive side.
Key stat: Brentford has scored multiple goals in four straight matches against Southampton.
Quick pick
Wolves/Nottingham Forest under 2.5 goals (-118): Wolves were a porous defensive team before sacking former manager Gary O’Neil in mid-December.
In comes Vitor Pereira, whose coaching tactics emphasize flexibility and solidity on defence. In three games under management, Wolves recorded two clean sheets en route to convincing victories.
Their attack takes a major hit with the suspension of forward Matheus Cunha, who leads the club in goals (10), shots, and chances created.
Sitting third in the league table at 37 points, Nottingham Forest could be destined for Champions League play next season, largely due to its impenetrable defence.
Nuno Espiritu Santo’s side ranks first in final-third entry conversion rate (averaging 1.6 percent) and is joint leader in clean sheets with Liverpool, at eight.
Offensively, the Tricky Trees are lethal when sitting deep and inviting pressure before attacking on the counter.
Wolves, however, are less resistant to quick counters and have allowed just a single goal on 16 fast break shots.
Picks made at 10:26 a.m. on 1/2/25.
