The EPL is back on boxing day and I’m sharing a parlay for the action.
The pregame narrative: I like two fan-favourite clubs to pick up a win in the post-holiday EPL slate while also backing offence in the Liverpool and Leicester City match.
Check out our EPL Matchday 18 parlay.
EPL Matchday 18 parlay
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Parlay: Chelsea to win + Liverpool/Leicester over 3.5 goals + Manchester United to win (+354)
Chelsea to win (-210): The London club is in form right now and I want a piece of the action.
Chelsea is 5-1-0 over its past six games with the draw coming to Everton on Sunday.
The Blues dominated with 75% of the possession and mustered up 12 shots but Everton kept the danger to a minimum in a defensive battle.
Fulham is a decent side but the stats indicate Chelsea is a tier above. Here are a few of Chelsea’s offensive stats and where they rank in the EPL, according to Fotmob.
- 36.0 expected goals (2nd)
- 61 big chances (2nd)
- 6.2 shots on target per match (2nd)
If you are following English football, you could probably guess that all of those stats are ranked second to Liverpool who is lighting the league on fire.
But Chelsea is slowly creeping into the trophy conversation and the club will need to keep tallying up wins.
I like the home side to grab the victory here as its momentum continues to build.
Quick pick
Liverpool/Leicester over 3.5 goals (-182): As briefly mentioned before, Liverpool has been an offensive juggernaut this season.
The Reds score the most goals per game (2.3) and generate chances at an alarming rate (71 big chances created).
Getting in on the Liverpool side is tough here as it is -1,000 to win and -400 to win by two or more goals. However, I believe this is a sneaky way to find value on the home side.
Four of the last five EPL games Liverpool has been a part of have gone over this total. The offence itself has scored two-plus goals in eight straight matches.
The other good news for this leg is that Liverpool has conceded in nine of 16 games this season so don’t be shocked if Leicester finds a way to contribute.
But the idea is that The Reds cover this total alone and take advantage of a bad defensive side.
Leicester City has conceded 35.2 xG which is the third-most in the EPL.
Manchester United to win (+100): Wolverhampton has been dreadful this season with a 3-3-11 record and I’m looking to fade the side, even at home.
The Wolves are 1-0-4 in their last five and concede the most goals per match (2.4).
Manchester United are not in contention to win the league by any means but this is good value against a team in the basement of the standings.
The Red Devils are 1-0-3 in their last four league games but all those opponents are well inside the top 10 of the table.
Before that, Man U beat Everton and Leicester 4-0 and 3-0 respectively. Those are squads much closer to the standard that Wolverhampton provides.
Picks made at 1:24 p.m. on 12/23/24.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.