I’ve got two bets on this weekend’s Premier League festive fixtures.
The pregame narrative: On Sunday, I am backing Leicester City to grab a home victory over a frail Wolverhampton side. Before that, take over 2.5 total goals in the clash between Brentford and Nottingham Forest.
Check out the best EPL Matchday 17 picks.
EPL Matchday 17 picks
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Best Bet: Leicester City draw no bet (-125)
This matchup has massive implications for relegation and I expect Leicester to come out of it on top.
Things are trending positively for the Foxes since Ruud van Nistelrooy took over as head coach. The Dutchman has instilled new energy into the squad playing more freely in attack.
Recent results saw Leicester deliver a 3-1 win over West Ham and a thrilling 2-2 draw against a respectable Brighton side.
Ageless wonder Jamie Vardy — who has seven goal contributions in the last eight matches — spearheads a Leicester attack that’s scored in all eight home matches and is capable of punishing a poor Wolves defence.
Wolves have allowed a league-worse 14 goals from set pieces, a method that Leicester has scored at a modest 18.3 percent clip.
Four consecutive defeats — off a deflating 2-1 loss to Ipswich Town — and the firing of head coach Gary O’Neil has led the Wolves into utter turmoil. In addition, newly-appointed manager Vitor Pereira likely won’t take the reins on Sunday, with such short notice.
The suspension of Rayan Ait-Nouri adds a further blow and leaves them without an attacking wingback to control the left flank.
- The Algerian international sits in the 80th percentile in all shooting metrics among left-backs, per Fotmob.
- Ait-Nouri averages 1.84 successful dribbles per 90, ranks 94th percentile.
Leicester has a 2-3-3 record at home, as opposed to 1-2-5 on the road.
I say this is a prime spot for the Foxes to pounce on their prey.
Key stat: Wolves have conceded two or more goals in 11 of its last 13 league matches.
Quick pick
Brentford/Nottingham Forest over 2.5 goals (-143): Matches at the GTech have been nothing short of exciting.
Surprisingly, Brentford owns a league-best 7-1-0 record at home, where its matches are averaging a whopping 5.0 goals.
Overall, Brentford matches have gone over 2.5 goals 13 of 16 times.
Its matchup against a stubborn Nottingham Forest side — averaging 1.22 expected goals allowed (xGA) — isn’t a favourable one, but I believe that’s baked into this low number.
The last match between these two sides ended in a 3-2 victory for the Bees.
Although the goals fest in Brentford matches has reached an unsustainable rate, I believe both teams have the weapons to contribute.
Picks made at 12:06 p.m. on 12/19/24.
