I am backing two sides in solid form for this week’s Premier League selections.
The pregame narrative: Crystal Palace is primed to pick up a result when it visits Brighton in a tasty matchup. After that, I expect Bournemouth to extend its winning streak at home against under-performers West Ham.
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EPL Matchday 16 picks
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Best Bet: Crystal Palace or tie (-107)
Crystal Palace has found its stride and I like it to pick up a result away to Brighton.
After a troublesome start to the campaign, the Eagles are unbeaten in their last four matches with impressive draws off Manchester City (2-2), Newcastle (1-1), and Aston Villa (2-2).
Manager Oliver Glasner has found stability with a squad that added several new pieces in the summer transfer window.
Trevor Chalobah and Maxence Lacroix have emerged as staples in Palace’s backline, building rapport with captain Marc Guehi.
Crystal Palace averages 44% possession and likes to park in a low defensive block, limit spaces and wait for chances to attack in transition.
This hasn’t favoured Brighton, a ball-dominant side that’s struggled to penetrate defences that sit deep:
| Brighton possession | Record |
| 50% or more | W1 D5 L3 |
| 49% or less | W5 D1 L0 |
Amid a first managerial campaign with Brighton, Fabian Hurzeler has struggled to gameplan against the counter-attack, allowing 16 shots and four goals from fast breaks (tied for most in the league).
The Seagulls only have won two of their last eight matches in all competitions, which includes dropping points to relegation contenders Wolves (2-2), Southampton (1-1) and Leicester (2-2).
After Glasner took over in February, Crystal Palace ascended from 16th to 10th in the table with a 7-4-3 run and a +15 goal differential.
The Eagles are flying under the radar and there’s value to back them on the double-result market.
Key stat: Brighton hasn’t kept a clean sheet in its last eight matches.
Quick pick
Bournemouth to win (-129): Don’t look now, but Bournemouth have won three straight matches and are soaring up the Premier League table.
A big reason for its recent success is its ultra-aggressive attack.
- Bournemouth is generating the second-highest xG (2.06) per game.
- It is whipping in the most crosses into the penalty area (averaging 2.53 per game).
This plays in its favour since West Ham is struggling defensively, allowing 1.80 xG per game. The Hammers also allow the third-most crosses into the penalty area (2.40 per game).
Offensively, West Ham is lacking at the striker position with Niclas Fullkurg not in full health and Michail Antonio (broken leg) out for an extended period.
Bournemouth plays better at home, to the tune of a 4-2-1 record, including astonishing wins over Arsenal and Manchester City.
It’s worth noting it has the rest advantage, with West Ham having last played on Monday.
I say pick the Cherries to extend their winning streak at home.
Picks made at 10:53 a.m. on 12/12/24.
