I’ve got picks for the two biggest EPL fixtures on Matchday 11.
The pregame narrative: On Saturday, first-place Liverpool hosts Aston Villa and I’m taking the under. After that, bet on Arsenal to beat Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.
Check out the best EPL Matchday 11 picks.
EPL Matchday 11 picks
Go to full Premier League betting markets.
Best Bet: Liverpool vs. Aston Villa under 3.5 goals (-143)
Arne Slot has been working magic to begin his tenure as Liverpool’s manager, with an 8-1-1 record through Matchday 10.
His Reds have only allowed six goals (the fewest in EPL) and are also a perfect 4-0-0 in the Champions League with just one goal conceded. Led by the big Dutchman Virgil van Dijk, Liverpool’s back line has been nearly impossible to crack.
Aston Villa locked in a Champions League spot last season thanks to a stout defence and while things haven’t been great this year, I still have faith in the Lions to tighten things up.
Unai Emery’s team has conceded the eighth-most goals so far but that doesn’t tell the whole story.
Four of those just came against Tottenham and Aston Villa also has the sixth-fewest expected goals against, per FB Ref.
Villa only has three goals in its last four games and I can’t see it breaking out against Liverpool. So the risk would be that the Reds offence carries the load but I think a healthy Villa backline can find its form in an important game.
Key stat: Six of Aston Villa’s last eight games across all competitions have fallen under this total.
Quick pick
Arsenal to win (+150): Arsenal and Chelsea both sit seven points behind Liverpool for the table lead with identical 5-3-2 records.
A win for either team will be crucial in keeping pace with the Reds and I think Arsenal, which was a pre-season title favourite, gets the job done.
Mikel Arteta’s team only has two wins in its last four games across all competitions but it appears Declan Rice and Kai Havertz will be suiting up this weekend.
That’s a big boost for the Gunners, especially considering Cole Palmer’s status for Chelsea is up in the air.
Arsenal has dominated this fixture in recent years with a 7-1-1 record against its London rival in its last nine games across all competitions.
Picks made at 1:09 p.m. on 10/31/24.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.