Someone is probably going to get into the win column when the Miami Dolphins host the New York Jets on Monday Night Football.
The pregame narrative: Both AFC East squads are 0-3 so far, but things have looked particularly grim for the Dolphins. In fairness, New York and Miami both covered as road underdogs last week as a way to show some sign of life.
Check out my Jets vs. Dolphins picks for the first Monday Night Football matchup of a doubleheader on Sept. 29.
Jets vs. Dolphins picks
Best Bet: Mason Taylor over 2.5 receptions (+125)
It can be easy to get wrapped up in coach-speak, but I’m going to drink the Kool-Aid a bit on this one.
Speaking to reporters this week, Jets head coach Aaron Glenn said this about the team’s plan for rookie tight end Mason Taylor:
“To do everything we can to try and get him more involved. He’s a dynamic player for us, and when the ball gets in his hands, even when the ball is not in his hands, he makes plays for us … But he’s a guy that we all recognize needs to get the ball.”
Taylor’s target volume has grown each week: 1, 2 and 6. Last Sunday, he caught four passes for 18 yards.
While I’m sure the Jets would want more explosiveness out of Taylor’s opportunities, I’m just focused on the volume of opportunities.
The jump in targets for Taylor came with Tyrod Taylor under centre for the Jets, and with Justin Fields likely returning, that could be a cause for concern. But Glenn’s comments affirm to me that the young TE should stay involved.
Miami’s pass defence has been the worst in the league, which also helps.
The Dolphins’ defence ranks 32nd in both EPA per dropback and pass success rate, per RBSDM.com.
Key stat: A tight end has cashed this bet in all three games vs. the Dolphins. All told, Miami has allowed an average of 7.7 targets and 6.0 receptions to opposing tight ends per game.
Other Monday Night Football picks
Jets +3 (-118): This is an ugly matchup between winless teams, and when that happens, I typically like to take the side that’s getting points.
New York has covered this number in two of its three losses and went 2-0 ATS vs. Miami last year.
I’m completely out on the Dolphins until they give me a reason to think otherwise. They’re dead last in defensive EPA per play, and their -41 point differential is markedly worse than New York’s (-24).
Miami was favoured in its first home game of the year and lost by six against New England.
Jaylen Waddle over 4.5 receptions (+112): Waddle has cashed this bet in back-to-back games, and now he’ll face a team that he tends to ball out against.
- In seven career games vs. the Jets, Waddle has averaged 6.4 catches and 75.9 yards on 8.0 targets.
- He’s 3-0 vs. this prop when facing New York at home. Last season, he had nine catches for 99 yards against the Jets at Hard Rock Stadium.
Miami has been the worst pass defence in the NFL so far, but New York isn’t too far behind.
The Jets’ defence is 30th in EPA per dropback while allowing the ninth-most receiving yards per game to opposing WRs.
Jets vs. Dolphins picks made at 1:19 p.m. ET 09/27/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.