NFL Week 3 begins with an AFC East battle between the Miami Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills.
The pregame narrative: Buffalo earned a comfortable win in Week 2 and is a heavy home favourite over a downtrodden Miami team. The Dolphins haven’t won in Western New York since 2016.
Check out my Dolphins vs. Bills same-game parlay predictions for Week 3 below, featuring Dalton Kincaid and Tua Tagovailoa.
Dolphins vs. Bills SGP predictions
SGP: Bills -6.5 | Kincaid over 30.5 rec. yards | Tagovailoa 1+ INTs (+280)
Bills -6.5 (-250): Buffalo and Miami have gotten off to utterly opposite starts.
The Bills are 2-0 with a +21 point differential. That includes a remarkable comeback win over the Ravens in Week 1 after trailing by 15 in the fourth quarter.
The Dolphins, meanwhile, are 0-2 with an AFC-worst -31 point differential. After digging a 30-0 hole against the Colts in Week 1, Miami lost as home favourites vs. the Patriots last week.
In their recent head-to-head history, the Bills have absolutely dominated the Dolphins. Buffalo is 9-1 SU against Miami since January 2021, and the Bills have covered a -6.5 spread in three of four meetings over the two previous seasons.
Since the start of the 2022 season, the Bills are 26-4 at home with a 12.5-point average victory margin.
Thursday Night Football SGP picks
Kincaid over 30.5 receiving yards (-108): Buffalo spreads the ball around, which can make it difficult to target anyone individually for a high-ceiling output. In Week 1 alone, nine Bills caught at least one pass.
Fortunately, we don’t need a massive game from Kincaid to cash this leg of the SGP. And his floor seems plenty high enough.
- Kincaid has eight catches for 85 yards and a TD through two games. He’s 2-0 vs. this prop.
- In his career vs. Miami, Kincaid has averaged 44.0 receiving yards over four games. He had at least four catches in each of those matchups.
Dawson Knox has a slight lead over Kincaid in total snaps, but not all snaps yield the same opportunity. Kincaid is clearly the No. 1 TE option in the receiving game.
According to RotoWire, Kincaid has participated in 63% of the Bills’ routes, while Knox’s route participation is just 45%.
Tagovailoa to throw an interception (-162): Buffalo hasn’t nabbed an interception yet, but I say that changes this week.
Tagovailoa already has three interceptions through two games. He was miserable in Miami’s first road game of the year (at Indianapolis):
- 14-for-23 passing
- 114 yards
- 5.0 yards/attempt
- 2 INTs
In 30 career road games, Tagovailoa has 28 interceptions. He’ll likely have to throw a lot in a game where his squad is a 12.5-point underdog.
Since the start of 2023, Tagovailoa has six INTs in four starts vs. Buffalo.
Dolphins vs. Billd predictions made at 11:15 a.m. on 09/17/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.